《大行报告》麦格理升渣打(02888.HK)及汇控(00005.HK)目标价 惟对银行股仍相对审慎
麦格理发表研究报告指,在宏观展望改善及派息限制放宽下,国际银行股获估值重评。不过,该行对国际银行股维持相对审慎看法,料2021年不会出现市场所憧憬的V形反弹,该行预期国际银行股面对贷款增长疲弱、净息差续低迷、高於均值的信贷开支、仍高企的经营开支及股本回报率(ROE)低於资金成本。而银行股主要分野在於资本管理,较大程度解释麦格理为何偏好渣打集团(02888.HK)多於汇丰控股(00005.HK)。麦格理予渣打「跑赢大市」评级,目标价由55元升至60元;另予汇控「跑输大市」评级,目标价由33元升至37元。
报告称,国际银行股面对的逆风放缓,但仍有多项制肘。信贷正常化进展缓慢,而资本管理仍面对不确定性。银行股普通股权资本充足率强劲,麦格理憧憬资本回报的限制将会解除。按其今年每股分派预测,意味汇控分派比率60%,渣打则25%。麦格理同时估计渣打会於今年下半年回购5亿美元股份。
麦格理料渣打今年首季经调整税前溢利按年升29%,汇控复苏相对温和,料升15%。由於净息差收窄,收入下跌料成定局,但料信贷成本正常化足以抵销有余。强劲财富管理及市场收入料成一大亮点。该行料国际银行股普通股权资本充足率可高於内部目标区间上限,但新的资本管理措施仍未可行。
报告解释,渣打正走出完美风暴。估值便宜的银行股并不罕有,但渣打倾向增长市场,较少重组活动及有倾向执行资本管理,为麦格理所欣赏。相较汇控,报告称,在对普通股权资本充足率影响较小下,渣打资本管理可提供较大的杠杆。即使中期ROE展望相若,但以市帐率计,渣打较汇控估值折让达30%。
麦格理进一步称,汇控有区内银行间较强的资产负债表,料在恢复派息下找到支持。不过,报告对汇控维持审慎看法,麦格理预测意味汇控恢复派息仅达疫情前约一半水平;重组料持续至明年,回购料不获考虑;此外,现正进行的重组带来的好处料多年後才反映。
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