《大行報告》中金:內地社融增速收斂 信貸需求維持高位 利內銀盈利能力
中金發表報告表示,就人行公布今年3月社會融資及信貸數據,3月內地信貸新增2.73萬億人民幣,按年少增1,039億人民幣,新增量超出該行和市場的預期,主要來自於對公中長期貸款的投放(基建、制造業); 3月社融新增3.34萬億人民幣,按年少增1.84萬億人民幣,按年少增主要來自於企業債、政府債、表外未貼現承兌匯票。
該行指總體來看,內地3月社融餘額增速如預期放緩(高基數和信貸少增預期),但幅度略超預期;第二是結構數據顯示需求強勁,表外開票和表內貼票負增長顯示監管方向;第三方是映射至銀行資產負債表,預計大體呈現量穩價增的趨勢,有利於內銀盈利能力恢復。
中金表示,新增社融按年少增主要由於企業債、政府債、表外未貼現票據少增,其中表外未貼現票據的少增是數據低於預期的主要原因,相信背後是監管對開票審查趨嚴。
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