華泰證券:上調現代牧業(1117.HK)目標價至3.4港元 評級“買入”
華泰證券發表研究報吿指,現代牧業(1117.HK)擴張加快,截至4月初已經公佈兩項併購,包括富源國際及中元牧業,該行假設自繁率為6%,料2025年集團將擁有43.4萬頭奶牛,距離其2025年目標仍有6.6萬頭奶牛的缺口,該行認為,這將通過繼續的併購和奶牛進口來實現。該行預測,2021至2023年基本每股盈利分別為0.13元(人民幣,下同)、0.2元及0.23元,目標價上調6%至3.4港元,維持“買入”評級。
集團早前收購中元牧業100%股權,該行認為,併購估值具有吸引力,收購有望產生協同效應,降低總體飼料成本,進一步提升牛奶產量和優化牧場管理效率。
華泰證券認為,原奶價格不僅取決於飼料成本,還取決於乳製品的供需動態以及上游奶牛養殖和下游乳製品製造之間的深度合作協同作用。考慮到供應短缺,該行預計集團的毛利率將來仍有適度擴張。

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