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《大行報告》國泰君安料內地今年流動性環境按年有所收緊 但仍將相對寬鬆
阿思達克 04-13 14:58
國泰君安發表報告表示,人行昨公布今年M2按年增長9.4%增速差於預期,按月下跌0.7個百分點,M1按年增速按月下降0.3個百分點至7.1%,指M2與M1的「剪刀差」按月收窄0.4個百分點至2.3%。總體而言,該行認為內地3月M2按月增速下降,顯示人行的貨幣政策整體穩健。

該行稱,今年在預期中國經濟繼續恢復的背景下,為了控制經濟風險,預計中國的流動性環境相對2020年整體將有所收緊,M2按年增速將與名義國內生產總值增速基本匹配。

國泰君安表示,於預期美聯儲繼續維持零利率不變、全球經濟受新冠疫情影響仍存在下行壓力的情況下,為了穩定經濟增長、降低新冠疫情的負面影響、控制經濟風險、支持小微企業和民營企業融資,該行預計今年人行貨幣政策將穩健且靈活精準、合理適度,並且中國的流動性狀況仍將相對寬鬆。

該行認為內地銀行業的盈利增速將一定程度上恢復,且中國銀行業的資產質量仍可控,維持內銀行業「跑贏大市」投資評級,行業首選股為招商銀行(03968.HK),對其評級「買入」,目標價為82.89元。(wl/k)

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