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《大行报告》瑞信料内地今年会采取更多措施监管互联网巨头 网企或更为自律
阿思达克 04-12 14:22
阿里巴巴(09988.HK)因在网络平台实施「二选一」垄断行为遭罚款182.28亿元人民币。瑞信发表报告指,罚款幅度合理及符合预期,对阿里的短期财务影响可控,相信中央政府的目的是促进公平竞争及市场健康发展,并确保互联网巨头承担一定程度的社会责任,而非限制企业增长发展,行业选股优先顺序依次为腾讯(00700.HK)、阿里巴巴、拼多多(PDD.US)、美团(03690.HK)和京东(09618.HK)。

中长期方面,报告指,整改中提及阿里不得利用平台数据及算法等实施垄断协议和滥用市场支配地位行为,有关要求目标是促进更健康的排名算法和商家生态系统,对淘宝和天猫的盈利能力影响有限。至於不得从事向平台内经营者收取不公平高价服务费,瑞信认为佣金的压力更多来自竞争而非监管,随着淘宝和天猫将重心转移到市场份额,没有看到有急切需要上调佣金,因此不预计会有实质性影响。

另一方面,报告提到,整改要求制定内部反垄断机制可能会导致更高的合规成本,但对阿里财务影响有限。不过,在日常操作中对合规性进行更严格的审查,或会减慢决策过程。而在监管压力下,互联网巨头很可能会在一定程度上逐步开放平台,比如允许微信支付在淘宝或淘宝在微信小程序使用。

报告指,互联网巨头一直在内地发展担当重要角色,例如阿里巴巴和腾讯带动经济数字化、京东和美团促进就业,及拼多多针对低线城市的消费升级。而监管机构亦希望提供一个鼓励创新环境,以保持全球竞争力。因此,该行预期未来仍会有更多关於反垄断执法的新消息,但不太可能会严重损害这些企业的业务。

瑞信表示,去年下半年起,内地加强了对互联网行业的监管,并在中央经济工作会议的八大任务中,要求强化反垄断和防止资本无序扩张,反映互联网反垄断监管趋势会持续,今年可能会有更多的互联网公司将面临监管行动。相比起对阿里巴巴的实质性罚款,监管机构可能会采取多种方法来规管互联网巨头,例如软指导或会议。同时,在监管压力日益加大的情况下,互联网巨头也可能会采取一些自律性措施或公开反对某些做法。

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