華僑銀行料港匯區間波動 短期跌破7.8機會不大
華僑銀行經濟師謝棟銘及華僑永亨銀行經濟師李若凡發表報告稱,長周末假期過後金融市場維持較大的波動性,伴隨著港匯自去年3月以來首次跌穿7.78的水平。儘管美聯儲重申鴿派立場,香港的市場參與者仍保持審慎,因對人行提早收緊貨幣政策的擔憂揮之不去。因此,上周中概股攜程(09961.HK)(TCOM.US)的公開招股反應較為冷淡。另外,雖然深港通滬港通下的資金再度由中國內地流向香港,但淨流入規模較溫和。在股票及貸款相關的港元需求保持疲軟,以及缺乏季節性因素的情況下,報告預計港匯現價將在7.77至7.79的區間內波動。
不過,考慮到全球流動性充裕(資金大幅流出香港的機會不大)、港美息差仍然較窄(套息誘因不足),以及IPO市場熱度猶存,報告認為短期內港匯跌破7.8的機會不大。鑒於港交所(00388.HK)尋求優化海外發行人上市制度的改革,再加上今年中恆指將進行大改革,以及年底可能有首隻SPAC在港上市,報告認為香港IPO市場可能保持穩健。
經濟方面,香港私人部門PMI由2月的50.2進一步上升至3月的50.5。更令人鼓舞的是職位增長率上升至2011年6月以來新高。經營活動趨穩,以及招聘需求回升,反映出香港經濟正在逐步復甦。
最後,今年初樓價指數和樓市成交量持續上升。然而,由於中原城市領先指數仍未出現明確的升勢,該行將繼續關注樓市的上升空間會否受限於不斷下滑的租金及股市回調造成的負面財富效應。
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