《大行报告》汇丰研究升马钢(00323.HK)及鞍钢(00347.HK)评级至「买入」 受惠行业上升周期
汇丰研究发表报告,指在减排下新产能减省及产出削减,内地钢铁业已进入上升周期,基本面改善,并迎来政策利好;环保政策带来的钢铁产出额外减省料进一步推高销售均价及毛利率。该行上调马钢(00323.HK)及鞍钢(00347.HK)H股投资评级,各由「持有」升至「买入」,马钢目标价由2.4元升至3.8元,鞍钢目标价则由3.4元升至5.9元;最偏好鞍钢H股,
报告称,过去曾指出去年内地钢铁需求创新高,惟由於供应充裕,毛利率仍低企。不过,由於内地制钢城市「一哥」唐山新一轮削减产能,供需关系改善。随着毛利率扩张,由铁矿石带来的单位成本上升已完全转嫁。该行料内地钢铁业终迎来需求超过供应的时机,钢厂议价能力上升。在基建、汽车及其他制造业支持下,料今年内地钢铁需求续升3%。
汇丰研究上调马钢今明两年每吨毛利预测分别56%及64%,上调今明两年盈测分别158%及188%;另该行上调鞍钢今明两年每吨毛利预测分别64%及81%,上调今明两年盈测分别193%及255%。报告解释,偏好鞍钢多於马钢,主因前者产品供应较少受到物业建筑影响。该行补充,喜好内地钢铁业,受惠全球经济复苏带来的强劲需求,以及内地供应减少。
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