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华侨银行料港汇区间波动 短期跌破7.8机会不大
阿思达克 04-12 15:12
华侨银行经济师谢栋铭及华侨永亨银行经济师李若凡发表报告称,长周末假期过後金融市场维持较大的波动性,伴随着港汇自去年3月以来首次跌穿7.78的水平。尽管美联储重申鸽派立场,香港的市场参与者仍保持审慎,因对人行提早收紧货币政策的担忧挥之不去。因此,上周中概股携程(09961.HK)(TCOM.US)的公开招股反应较为冷淡。另外,虽然深港通沪港通下的资金再度由中国内地流向香港,但净流入规模较温和。在股票及贷款相关的港元需求保持疲软,以及缺乏季节性因素的情况下,报告预计港汇现价将在7.77至7.79的区间内波动。

不过,考虑到全球流动性充裕(资金大幅流出香港的机会不大)、港美息差仍然较窄(套息诱因不足),以及IPO市场热度犹存,报告认为短期内港汇跌破7.8的机会不大。鉴於港交所(00388.HK)寻求优化海外发行人上市制度的改革,再加上今年中恒指将进行大改革,以及年底可能有首只SPAC在港上市,报告认为香港IPO市场可能保持稳健。

经济方面,香港私人部门PMI由2月的50.2进一步上升至3月的50.5。更令人鼓舞的是职位增长率上升至2011年6月以来新高。经营活动趋稳,以及招聘需求回升,反映出香港经济正在逐步复苏。

最後,今年初楼价指数和楼市成交量持续上升。然而,由於中原城市领先指数仍未出现明确的升势,该行将继续关注楼市的上升空间会否受限於不断下滑的租金及股市回调造成的负面财富效应。

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