《大行報告》匯豐研究升馬鋼(00323.HK)及鞍鋼(00347.HK)評級至「買入」 受惠行業上升周期
匯豐研究發表報告,指在減排下新產能減省及產出削減,內地鋼鐵業已進入上升周期,基本面改善,並迎來政策利好;環保政策帶來的鋼鐵產出額外減省料進一步推高銷售均價及毛利率。該行上調馬鋼(00323.HK)及鞍鋼(00347.HK)H股投資評級,各由「持有」升至「買入」,馬鋼目標價由2.4元升至3.8元,鞍鋼目標價則由3.4元升至5.9元;最偏好鞍鋼H股,
報告稱,過去曾指出去年內地鋼鐵需求創新高,惟由於供應充裕,毛利率仍低企。不過,由於內地製鋼城市「一哥」唐山新一輪削減產能,供需關係改善。隨著毛利率擴張,由鐵礦石帶來的單位成本上升已完全轉嫁。該行料內地鋼鐵業終迎來需求超過供應的時機,鋼廠議價能力上升。在基建、汽車及其他製造業支持下,料今年內地鋼鐵需求續升3%。
匯豐研究上調馬鋼今明兩年每噸毛利預測分別56%及64%,上調今明兩年盈測分別158%及188%;另該行上調鞍鋼今明兩年每噸毛利預測分別64%及81%,上調今明兩年盈測分別193%及255%。報告解釋,偏好鞍鋼多於馬鋼,主因前者產品供應較少受到物業建築影響。該行補充,喜好內地鋼鐵業,受惠全球經濟復甦帶來的強勁需求,以及內地供應減少。
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