《大行报告》汇丰研究下调龙源电力(00916.HK)目标价至14元 评级「买入」
汇丰研究发表的报告指,早前国家能源局针对电价及补贴的谘询文件为可再生能源营运商的项目回报带来不确定性,相信除非政策更清晰,否则短期将令行业波动增加。而据媒体报道发改委早前发布谘询文件指,2021年获批的新风电或太阳能项目,除住宅或太阳能发热项目外,将不获国家补贴,虽然未来项目价格将透过竞投厘定,不过将受限於个别省份的指引。该行相信消息或会影响市场对政府在可再生能源补贴上的信心,不过最终政策仍要待行业反馈,意味在正式推出时有机会有更好的结果,不过估计龙源电力(00916.HK)股价短期将随投资气氛转变而进一步波动。
该行指出公司上月发电量按年持平,认为主要是受惠新产能及弃风率较低,不过相关因素部分被风资源弱势所抵销,估计其产能利用率按年跌10%,料今年首季将贡献2021财年预测的30%。
汇丰研究认为在补贴层面存在不确定性,同时监管机构亦有机会为营运商施压,影响到其项目回报可见性,不过具规模效率的营运商估计可抢占市场份额,所以予龙源电力「买入」评级,估计公司可跑赢同业,将其2021-22年盈利预测降0-1%,目标价由14.5元降至14元。(el/k) ~
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