《大行報告》中金:碳中和將重塑內地鋼鐵業新格局 重視龍頭投資機會
中金發表報告表示,觀察到國家發改委及工信部已多次強調2021年實現鋼材產量壓降,疊加鋼鐵重鎮唐山在環保政策上大幅收緊以佐證,該行認為本輪鋼價上漲幅度及持續性均有望超出上輪供改。
碳中和背景下,中金指內地鋼鐵行業中長期供需格局迎來重塑,盈利有望迎趨勢性改善。鋼鐵行業作為工業部門最大的碳排放來源,碳減排責無旁貸。據鋼鐵行業碳達峰目標,該行認為鋼鐵行業要實現2025年達峰,2030年減排30%的目標,對鋼鐵產量的管控勢在必行,行業供給中長期受限的確定性已進一步提升。
目前中國鋼鐵需求仍未見頂,中金認為有望保持穩中有升趨勢,行業長期供給過剩的格局將迎來重塑,行業盈利有望得到趨勢性的改善。優勝劣汰,行業加速走向集中,板塊龍頭強者恆強。在鋼鐵行業從粗放式發展向綠色低碳和高質量發展轉型的過程中,該行認為中國將逐步建立以碳排放、污染物排放及能耗總量為依據的引導機制,行業將由純粹的成本競爭轉向綜合實力的競爭,龍頭鋼企將憑借成本及綠色制造優勢不斷擴張規模,持續提升盈利能力。
該行重點推薦板材龍頭寶鋼(600019.SH),建議關注低估值板材標的鞍鋼(00347.HK)、馬鋼(00323.HK)、華菱鋼鐵(000932.SZ)、新鋼股份(600782.SH)及具備明顯成本優勢的長材龍頭方大特鋼(600507.SH)。
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