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國泰君安:穩定增長前景可期,維持新力控股(2103.HK)“買入”評級
格隆匯 04-08 08:55

國泰君安4月7日更新對新力控股的股票報吿。主要內容如下:

利潤持平但是資產負債表改善。與國泰君安的預期基本一致,新力2020年錄得持平的核心股東淨利潤人民幣18.68億元,主要因為交付延遲以及毛利率下滑(24.4%,同比跌5.2個百分點)。 另一方面,公司財務狀況得到改善,2020年底淨負債率下跌至63.6%(2019年底為68.0%),以及負債結構優化。根據管理層,新力很有可能在未來1-1.5年內實現“三條紅線下”的綠檔。

多元化但謹慎的拿地策略。新力計劃將其拿地渠道多元化,約50%土地獲取來自招拍掛,30%來自兼併購,20%來自產業合作。另外,國泰君安認為新力將維持具有利潤的地貨比例(2020年約32%水平)以及毛利率可能在未來穩定在24%-25%的水平。此外,國泰君安還看好新力重點關注長三角和大灣區的策略,公司將在這兩個中國最發達區域投入更多資源。

未來幾年穩定的增長預期。新力對2021年權益合約銷售額設定了温和的10%同比增長目標。考慮到新力在提升土儲權益比例上的努力(2020年新增土儲權益比60%),以及充足的權益未確認銷售額人民幣600億元,國泰君安預計新力將在未來三年錄得穩定的10%左右的利潤增長。

維持“買入”評級,目標價4.80港元。國泰君安相信新力正走在穩定增長的道路上,且保持了穩健的資產負債表,並改善了土儲質量。國泰君安的目標價為4.80港元,對應2021年核心市盈率7.0倍,以及2021年市淨率1.2倍。

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