《大行报告》花旗:内银首选建行和邮储行 降民行评级至「中性」
花旗发表报告指,其追踪的内银第四季拨备前盈利按年增长6.6%,高於第三季的3.8%增幅,主要受到资产负债表扩张及非利息收入的支持。计及拨备,内银第四季盈利按年增长44.7%,对比第三季则按年倒退3.7%,显示季内拨备压力消减。
该行指,邮储银行(01658.HK)、中国银行(03988.HK)及中信银行(00998.HK)去年税後盈利表现好於预期,民生银行(01988.HK)表现则令人失望。该行偏好大行多於小型银行,料今年首季由於流动性收紧,内银非利息收入疲弱,惟大型银行在基数低的情况下相对有利。另外在资金成本上升及资本要求提高的前提下,大型银行所受的影响较小。该行相信今年首季内银拨备前盈利增长将令市场失望,估值较高的小型银行将受到较大负面影响。
基於以上情况,该行下调民行评级自「买入」降级至「中性」,以反映其具挑战性的不良贷款前景,首选则为建设银行(00939.HK)及邮储行。
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