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《大行報告》中金料內地市場收緊信用 貨幣增速或將下行
阿思達克 04-07 14:33
中金近日發表報告表示,由於內地去年3月開始復工復產,各項經濟活動指標基數比去年1-2月份上升,所以今年3月份按年增速將比1-2月回落。但是從今年1-2月份經濟活動數據、以及3月份製造業PMI看,經濟增長動能仍然較強,今年首季度GDP經濟增速可能超預期。另一方面,在市場緊信用背景下貨幣增速可能回落。

該行預計,內地今年3月工業增加值按年增長16%(相對2019年同期兩年平均增長7.1%);零售按年增長28%(兩年平均增長3.8%);固定資產投資首三個月累計按年增長24%(兩年平均增長2%)。綜合來看,該行預計內地今年3月出口按年增長27%,進口按年增長25%,貿易順差284億美元。

中金指,內地今年3月流動性較為寬鬆,央行調查問卷顯示首季度企業貸款需求仍較為旺盛。但該行預計貨幣增速回落,主要原因在於,去年3-4月銀行對部分到期貸款進行延期,去年3月新增人民幣貸款較2019年同期多增1萬億人民幣;考慮到這些企業現金流逐步改善,到期後可能會還款。該行預計今年3月新增信貸2.5萬億人民幣,低於去年同期2.85萬億人民幣。

內地今年3月底票據轉貼現利率小幅上行,可能反映銀行表內貸款額度緊張,表內新增票據貼現或小幅為負,表外可能正增長。今年內地政府債發行進度放緩,3月發行量3,000億人民幣左右,顯著低於去年同期。該行預計內地3月新增社融3.7萬億元,低於去年同期5.2萬億人民幣,存量社融增速回落至12.5%左右(前值 13.3%),估計M2按年增速回落至9.7%左右(前值10.1%)。

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