《大行报告》中金料内地市场收紧信用 货币增速或将下行
中金近日发表报告表示,由於内地去年3月开始复工复产,各项经济活动指标基数比去年1-2月份上升,所以今年3月份按年增速将比1-2月回落。但是从今年1-2月份经济活动数据、以及3月份制造业PMI看,经济增长动能仍然较强,今年首季度GDP经济增速可能超预期。另一方面,在市场紧信用背景下货币增速可能回落。
该行预计,内地今年3月工业增加值按年增长16%(相对2019年同期两年平均增长7.1%);零售按年增长28%(两年平均增长3.8%);固定资产投资首三个月累计按年增长24%(两年平均增长2%)。综合来看,该行预计内地今年3月出口按年增长27%,进口按年增长25%,贸易顺差284亿美元。
中金指,内地今年3月流动性较为宽松,央行调查问卷显示首季度企业贷款需求仍较为旺盛。但该行预计货币增速回落,主要原因在於,去年3-4月银行对部分到期贷款进行延期,去年3月新增人民币贷款较2019年同期多增1万亿人民币;考虑到这些企业现金流逐步改善,到期後可能会还款。该行预计今年3月新增信贷2.5万亿人民币,低於去年同期2.85万亿人民币。
内地今年3月底票据转贴现利率小幅上行,可能反映银行表内贷款额度紧张,表内新增票据贴现或小幅为负,表外可能正增长。今年内地政府债发行进度放缓,3月发行量3,000亿人民币左右,显着低於去年同期。该行预计内地3月新增社融3.7万亿元,低於去年同期5.2万亿人民币,存量社融增速回落至12.5%左右(前值 13.3%),估计M2按年增速回落至9.7%左右(前值10.1%)。
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