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渣打料美元未来走势仍有机会向下 欧元、英镑、澳元料将受惠复苏
阿思达克 04-07 11:55
渣打香港财富管理投资顾问董事赵海珠出席记者会时指出,料汇市会因应疫情及经济复苏步伐走势各异,美元首季表现强主要是憧憬经济复苏,料美元受惠疫苗消息短期较强,不过长期走弱的基本因素仍在,料美元未来12个月走势仍有机会向下。

她续指,欧洲疫情持续令欧元短期受压,不过中长线随着疫苗接种加快,或改善欧元区增长,利好欧元走势,短期兑美元支持位在1.16,长线兑美元料可上望1.2水平。英镑方面由於美国已有五成成年人接种疫苗,料英镑表现或稍好於欧元,而当地经济有望受惠全球经济贸易,兑美元有望见1.4水平。

澳元方面她预期有机会随经济复苏向好,料澳洲将继续采取宽松政策,或到2024年後才考虑加息问题,她又认为铁矿石及天然气价格走势强利好贸易条件,惟地缘政治忧虑或有机会令澳元受压。

在港汇方面,投资策略主管梁振辉料仍有较多资金在香港市场寻找机会,将支持港汇情况,料後市将视乎香港经济走向、疫情控制及金融市场是否活跃等,同时亦视乎企业来港上市情况,不过如美汇转弱或有利港汇造好。

高级投资策略师林嘉文指,在债券市场方面,渣打依然看好信用债,预期增长及企业盈利好转,支撑该行看好新兴市场美元政府债、亚洲美元债和发达市场高收益公司债。他指出收益率的升势基本已结束,预期美国十年期国债收益率未来12个月应该处於1.5%至1.75%水平。

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