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《大行報告》花旗升比亞迪(01211.HK)未來三年電動車銷售預測 維持「買入」評級
阿思達克 04-01 14:17
花旗發表研究報告表示,與比亞迪(01211.HK)管理層 溝通後,將2021至2023年新能源汽車銷量預測提升至43.2萬、73.3萬及92.5萬輛,但將內燃引擎汽車銷售量預測下調至13萬、7.2萬及1.4萬輛,以反映產品組合重心轉移至新能源汽車。同時考慮到內燃引擎汽車未來幾年平均售價將下降,將內燃引擎汽車毛利率下調至2%以下。

至於新能源汽車,該行預計混合毛利率未來將穩定維持在13%至18%之間,並且對原材料價格走勢較為敏感。報告指,由於新能源汽車銷售旺盛,以及電池生產面對瓶頸,花旗將2021至2023年對外電池出貨量預測下調至0.84、5.13及12.77GWh,並相應將淨利潤預測下調24%至27%,至54億、88億及150億元人民幣,複合增長率為約67%。

該行指,如果純電動車(BEV)車型「漢」及DMI插電式混合動力車(PHEV)每月銷量可達8,000及3.5萬輛,預期正常淨利率可分別保持在10%及4%,合共貢獻淨利潤約45億元人民幣。如果DMI PHEV單月銷量達到8萬輛,則可產生56億至70億元人民幣淨利潤。

花旗指,考慮到估值及次季新能源汽車的輕微銷售風險,將目標價由349元下調至287元,但維持「買入」評級。

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