郭思治: 大市於4月初旬或会先稍见低位
香港股票分析师协会副主席郭思治称,大市已开始踏进2021年第二季,不妨先回顾首季的市况,从波幅上看,恒指是由1月4日之低位27,079点升至2月18日之高位31,183点,即大市於首季的波幅为4,104点,论幅度该已不算小,至於第二季的波幅有多少,先看4月份之市势是先低或是先高,因恒指如在月初先稍见低位,技术上确有利於後市渐发展成後高,问题只是低位会在何处而已,谈到此点,首先需关注的是100天线(28,062点)之支持,因大市一旦跌穿该线,另一个技术防线将退守至3月25日之低位27,505点,而此防线之支持该颇关键,因一旦大市跌穿此关,即表示自2月18日高位31,183点开始之中期调整仍在延续中,亦即是说,整个中期调整之时间可能伸延至八周或更多。
今天(4月1日)是4月份首个交易日,论市势确稍偏淡,以恒指昨天(3月31日)报收在28,378点计,技术上仍反覆於10天线(28,523点),20天线(28,740点)及50天线(29,311点)之下,单从形态上看,整个反覆不明之市况仍未见改善,而从走势上看,4月初旬之市势该会先稍见低位,再者,长假期在即,相信资金入市态度亦会较保守。
(笔者为证监会持牌人)~
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