一文了解大行於农行(01288.HK)公布业绩後最新评级、目标价及观点
农业银行(01288.HK)今早股价偏淡，农行昨日(30日)收市後公布去年业绩，纯利按年增长1.8%至2,159.25亿元人民币，接近本网综合5间券商预测上限的2,165.41亿元人民币。每股盈利0.59元人民币。宣派每十股股息1.851元人民币。瑞信指农行去年纯利优预期，净息差表现在四大国有银中表现最佳，指其营运大致保持定，但野村关注农行资产质素表现逊预期。
农行去年净利息收入按年增长8.8%至5,450.79亿元人民币，净利息收益率按年收窄3点子至2.2%。手续费及佣金净收入按年增长2.2%，营业收入按年增长4.8%至6,593.32亿元人民币，高於本网综合5间券商预测下限的6,585.22亿元人民币。去年信用减值损失1,646.99亿元人民币，低於本网综合4间券商预测的1,749.6亿元人民币。不良贷款余额按年增加26.7%至2,371.13亿元人民币。不良贷款率1.57%按年升17点子。去年底止核心一级资本充足率11.04%，按年跌0.2个百分点。
农行副董事长兼行长张青松表示，去年净息差受压是行业趋势，料今年净息差仍面临一定压力，在现行相对稳定LPR下，首季房贷定价下降2至3点子。今年将续强化贷款差异化风险定价、调整贷款结构及占整体收入比重。
【净息差理想 资产质素逊】
摩根大通发表报告表示，农行去年第四季利录506亿人民币，符合该行原预期512亿人民币，相信业绩对股价中性，正面因素包括净息差仅按年收窄3个基点，属四大国有商银中表现最佳，管理层料今年净息差压力会较去年为小。资本方面，管理层承诺依赖内生资本创造以补充核心资本，并称没有发行普通股集资压力。但该行亦指，资产质素忧虑未解，不良贷款持续上升，且见到投资及表外承诺与担保上出现减值急增的情况。该行维持对农行「增持」评级及4元目标价不变。
花旗指农行上季业绩好坏参半，称关注农行去年第四季贷款及存款增长疲弱，且费用收入按年跌近七成。但净息差及成本收入比率改善，不良贷款形成率亦按季下跌70点子至0.24%，联营盈利分帐亦急增。花旗维持对农行「买入」评级及目标价4.31元不变
汇丰环球研究上调对农行H股目标价，由3.8元上调至4.1元，维持「买入」评级。该行认为，农行去年拨备前经营溢利增长胜同业，净息差走势亦优於同业。但不良贷款比率上升，部分地反映加强对坏帐确认，信贷损失拨备率亦高於同业。该行上调对农行今明年盈利测6.4%及4.5%，以反映对净利息收入及成本效益改善的预期。
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本网最新综合6间券商对其投资评级及目标价：
券商│投资评级│目标价(港元)
花旗│买入│4.31元
里昂│买入│4.3元
汇丰环球研究│买入│3.8元->4.1元
摩根大通│增持│4元
瑞信│跑赢大市│3.8元
野村│买入│3.54元
券商│观点
花旗│去年第四季业绩好坏参半，净息差及成本效益为亮点
里昂│因应业绩胜预期上调今明两年盈测5.6%及6.5%
汇丰环球研究│业务动力增加
摩根大通│净息差胜预期，但资产质素逊预期
瑞信│纯利增长胜预期，净息差为四大行表现最佳
野村│去年第四季盈利胜预期，但资产质素逊预期
(fc/w)
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