一文综合大行於中行(03988.HK)公布业绩後最新评级、目标价及观点
中国银行(03988.HK)早市股价偏好，半日升0.7%收2.94元。中行昨(30日)收市後公布去年业绩，纯利按年升2.9%至1,928.7亿元人民币，高於本网综合4间券商预测上限的1,914.68亿元人民币；每股盈利0.61元人民币。派每股末期息0.197元人民币。
中行去年营业收入按年升3.2%至5,676.47亿元人民币，低於中金及摩通早前预测5,687.7亿及5,707.85亿元人民币。去年净利息收入按年升6.6%至4,159.18亿元人民币，手续费及佣金收支净额按年升2.3%至755.22亿元人民币。平均总资产回报率为0.87%，按年跌5点子，净资产收益率为10.61%，跌84点子。净息差为1.85%跌4点子，成本收入比为26.73%跌1.27个百分点。
中行去年不良贷款率为1.46%升9点子，不良贷款拨备覆盖率为177.84%，跌5.02个百分点。截至年底核心一级资本充足率为11.28%，跌2点子。中行副行长陈怀宇表示，去年受疫情影响，令不良贷款反弹，其中内地集中在制造业、房地产等，海外则为油气和航空业等，但第四季不良贷款已较第三季改善，相信有持续回复趋势。
【业绩优预期 股息回报佳】
汇丰环球研究发表报告表示，上调对中行H股目标价，由3.6元上调至3.9元，评级「买入」。该行指出，中行去年第四季净息差及贷款损失拨备率跌幅均低於同业，资产比率改善，股息亦较去年增加。但负面而言，中行拨备前经营溢利增长逊同业，资产增长在人民币升值下放缓，存款更在去年下半年收缩。该行上调对中行今明两年盈利预测7.6%及6.1%。
瑞银亦指，中行去年第四季拨备前经营溢利仅增长3.5%，差於其余三大国有商银平均增速10%水平。该行料中行净息差大致维持稳定，且不良贷款率、关注类贷款迕及逾期贷款率均出现下降。瑞银维持对中行「中性」评级及2.6元目标价不变。
美银证券表示，上调对中行H股目标价，由3.7元上调至3.85元，评级「买入」。该行指，中行去年一级资本债分派前纯利按年升2.9%，高於该行预期6%及市场共识13%。拨备前溢利则按年升3.8%，符合该行预期。派息率按年升0.9个百分点至32.1%，每股派息较预期高13%，指中行毛股息率为8厘於同业中属较高。该行上调对中行今明两年盈利预测5%，又认为中行高股息率及增长稳定。
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本网最新综合5间券商对其投资评级、目标价及观点：
券商│投资评级│目标价((港元)
花旗│买入│4.33元
汇丰环球研究│买入│3.6元->3.9元
美银证券│买入│3.7元->3.85元
里昂│买入│3.8元
瑞银│中性│2.6元
券商│观点
花旗│去年第四季盈利胜预期，受惠净息差及资产质素
汇丰环球研究│净息差及资产质素坚韧
美银证券│盈利增长复苏急速，股息回报吸引
里昂│上调今明两年盈利预测5.9%及6.7%
瑞银│盈利增长符预期，但拨备前经营溢利增长动力逊同业
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