一文了解大行於農行(01288.HK)公布業績後最新評級、目標價及觀點
農業銀行(01288.HK)今早股價偏淡，農行昨日(30日)收市後公布去年業績，純利按年增長1.8%至2,159.25億元人民幣，接近本網綜合5間券商預測上限的2,165.41億元人民幣。每股盈利0.59元人民幣。宣派每十股股息1.851元人民幣。瑞信指農行去年純利優預期，淨息差表現在四大國有銀中表現最佳，指其營運大致保持定，但野村關注農行資產質素表現遜預期。
農行去年淨利息收入按年增長8.8%至5,450.79億元人民幣，淨利息收益率按年收窄3點子至2.2%。手續費及佣金淨收入按年增長2.2%，營業收入按年增長4.8%至6,593.32億元人民幣，高於本網綜合5間券商預測下限的6,585.22億元人民幣。去年信用減值損失1,646.99億元人民幣，低於本網綜合4間券商預測的1,749.6億元人民幣。不良貸款餘額按年增加26.7%至2,371.13億元人民幣。不良貸款率1.57%按年升17點子。去年底止核心一級資本充足率11.04%，按年跌0.2個百分點。
農行副董事長兼行長張青松表示，去年淨息差受壓是行業趨勢，料今年淨息差仍面臨一定壓力，在現行相對穩定LPR下，首季房貸定價下降2至3點子。今年將續強化貸款差異化風險定價、調整貸款結構及佔整體收入比重。
【淨息差理想 資產質素遜】
摩根大通發表報告表示，農行去年第四季利錄506億人民幣，符合該行原預期512億人民幣，相信業績對股價中性，正面因素包括淨息差僅按年收窄3個基點，屬四大國有商銀中表現最佳，管理層料今年淨息差壓力會較去年為小。資本方面，管理層承諾依賴內生資本創造以補充核心資本，並稱沒有發行普通股集資壓力。但該行亦指，資產質素憂慮未解，不良貸款持續上升，且見到投資及表外承諾與擔保上出現減值急增的情況。該行維持對農行「增持」評級及4元目標價不變。
花旗指農行上季業績好壞參半，稱關注農行去年第四季貸款及存款增長疲弱，且費用收入按年跌近七成。但淨息差及成本收入比率改善，不良貸款形成率亦按季下跌70點子至0.24%，聯營盈利分帳亦急增。花旗維持對農行「買入」評級及目標價4.31元不變
匯豐環球研究上調對農行H股目標價，由3.8元上調至4.1元，維持「買入」評級。該行認為，農行去年撥備前經營溢利增長勝同業，淨息差走勢亦優於同業。但不良貸款比率上升，部分地反映加強對壞帳確認，信貸損失撥備率亦高於同業。該行上調對農行今明年盈利測6.4%及4.5%，以反映對淨利息收入及成本效益改善的預期。
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本網最新綜合6間券商對其投資評級及目標價：
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
花旗│買入│4.31元
里昂│買入│4.3元
匯豐環球研究│買入│3.8元->4.1元
摩根大通│增持│4元
瑞信│跑贏大市│3.8元
野村│買入│3.54元
券商│觀點
花旗│去年第四季業績好壞參半，淨息差及成本效益為亮點
里昂│因應業績勝預期上調今明兩年盈測5.6%及6.5%
匯豐環球研究│業務動力增加
摩根大通│淨息差勝預期，但資產質素遜預期
瑞信│純利增長勝預期，淨息差為四大行表現最佳
野村│去年第四季盈利勝預期，但資產質素遜預期
(fc/w)
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