《大行報告》瑞銀:美團(03690.HK)調整後風險回報改善 市場對社區團購投資保持耐性
瑞銀發表報告表示,美團(03690.HK)股價自2月中旬高位累積調整34%後,指喜愛其目前的風險回報,指其外賣及社區團購業務近期趨勢鞏固,並相信內地監管壓力屬於可控。
該行指,美團去年第四季外賣業務營運毛利率按季及按年均有所改善,料其今年會進一步改善,維持對其「買入」評級,下調目標價由470元降至420元,相當今明兩年市銷率各11.5倍及8.3倍,與其他大型互聯網同業估值相近。
瑞銀引述美團管理層認為更廣闊的消費零售市場,最終將使美團的用戶群從5億增加到中國的所有互聯網用戶,增幅可達70%,並將整體交易額從食品配送、到店、至所有電子商務增加多達4倍。該行認為,由於美團產品組合,規模和較少的非理性競爭,美團的社區團體購買單位的經濟狀況持續改善。鑑於近期取得的進展,該行認為雖然美團2020年第四季總經營虧損從30億人民幣,料至2021年首季虧損會增加50億人民幣,並可能於2021年保持這一水平,但投資者仍將對此計劃保持樂觀看法,並保持耐性。
該行料美團2021年全年經調整虧損73.69億人幣、估計今年收入1,866.07億人民幣按年升近62.6%;該行估計美團2022年可扭虧為盈,錄經調整純利44.72億人民幣,料明年收入2,591.95億人民幣按年升38.9%。
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