首程控股(00697.HK)2020年度業績點評：停車板塊強勁增長，戰略聚焦卓有成效，維持買入評級，目標價2.70港元
機構：中信建投
評級：買入
目標價：2.70港元
營收利潤雙雙實現高速增長，業務轉型導致毛利率下行。2020年公司實現營業收入7.1億港元，同比增77.9%，實現本公司擁有人應占溢利6.6億港元，同比增長48.7%。期內停車和基金管理板塊的收入分別佔總營收的68.1%和30.2%，同時2019年佔比34.5%的礦石貿易業務徹底剝離，標誌着公司業務轉型的階段性完成。期內公司毛利率為24.8%，較去年同期下降了26.3個百分點，主要原因在於：1、毛利率水平較低的停車業務規模大幅增長，疊加業務處在快速拓展期費用支出較高，拖累綜合毛利率；2、機場等交通樞紐類停車場項目受疫情影響盈利水平出現下滑。
停車板塊收入增長強勁，首度實現盈利，基金業務穩健增長。公司停車板塊的表現亮眼，全年實現收入4.8億港元，同比提升171.8%。同時實現淨利潤1.8億港元，是停車業務創立以來的首次盈利。盈利的主要原因在於2019年折價收購的停車資產得到重估和增值，以及年內投入運營車位數的增加。當前公司累計簽約的車位數已超10萬並向20萬邁進，同時確立了在未來5-6年左右實現100萬個車位數的目標。基金板塊期內實現收入2.1億港元，同比增長17.7%，實現淨利潤1.4億港元，同比下降30.0%，但剔除扣非後同比增長25.0%。
剝離焦煤業務實現戰略再聚焦，再融資持續投入深化停車業務“護城河”。公司於2021年2月公吿計劃將持有的首鋼資源的股權出售，總對價約為14.4億港元，此次剝離將助力公司更聚焦核心板塊業務。同月公司完成了超4億港元的戰略配售，考慮到自2017年確立戰略轉型以來，公司多次再融資均投入到新業務的創新和發展，我們預計未來公司停車業務的護城河將不斷加深。
略調整盈利預測和目標價，維持買入評級。我們略下調公司2021-2023年EPS至0.108/0.127/0.146港元（原預測為0.108/1.130港元）。考慮到可比公司2021年平均PE估值為25X，我們給予公司25X估值，對應2.70港元的目標價（原目標價為3.24港元）。
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