《大行報告》大和上調龍湖(00960.HK)目標價至55.9元 評級「買入」
大和發表的研究報告指,龍湖集團(00960.HK)去年核心盈利187億元人民幣(下同),按年升20%符預期,派息每股1.43元,意味派息比率為45%,與2019年一致,公司去年整體毛利率29.3%,而2019年則為33.6%,公司目標未來數年毛利率可逾25%。
該行指出,公司目標今年合約銷售增15%至3,100億元,高於該行預期,可售資源約4,700億元,意味去化率要求為66%,而其中68%可售資源為全新項目及現有項目的新一期,96%位於一、二線城市,管理層估計未來數年銷售增長可達雙位數,亦高於該行預測。
大和指出儘管受疫情影響,公司去年可持續收入仍增33%至135.7億元,其中投資物業租金收入按年升31%至75.8億元,物管及其他業務收入則升35%至59.9億元,公司今年將推11個新商場,2022年則推13個,2022年之後最少每年推10個商場,目標未來數年租金收入每年增長30%以上。管理層亦料長租公寓今年可扭虧,而收入將達20億元,未來數年租金收入增長逾30%。在智能服務方面,公司去年底在管面積為1.72億平方米,目標每年收入增長可逾30%。
該行留意到公司財務表現持續強勁,與同業有所不同,而截至去年底公司於「三道紅線」的政策下維持在「綠線」組別內,淨負債水平降至46%,而債務與資產比率僅為67%,現金與短債比率則為4.24倍,平均融資成本由2019年的4.54%降至4.39%。該行將公司2021至2023年合約銷售預測升3%至5%,目標價由51.3元升至55.9元,重申「買入」評級,認為公司業務有穩健基礎,同時有望在市場份額及盈利上錄持續增長。
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