大和:維持現代牧業(1117.HK)買入評級 目標價上調至3.2港元
大和發表研究報吿指,該行與現代牧業(1117.HK)管理層舉辦業績後路演,公司預計今年原奶價格按年增長5-6%,足以抵銷單位飼料成本0.2-0.25元人民幣的上漲,公司預計收購富源國際能降低飼料成本,並擴大生產規模。該行預計現代牧業2021-23年運營現金流和淨利潤將顯著改善,並且看到原奶價格將在2021年繼續回升,將其目標價由2.81港元上調至3.2港元,維持買入評級。
該行指,公司料將於2020-25年度產生110億元的總資本開支,使其牛羣規模和銷量翻一番,其中約60%的資本開支來自於運營現金流和今年1月底的定增募資。考慮到牛羣規模的增加,原奶單產的提高以及今年1月新股發行帶來的每股收益攤薄約10%,該行將2021-22年度收入提高2-35%,每股收益提高7-15%。

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