《大行報告》高盛上調新東方在線(01797.HK)評級至「中性」 目標價降至18元
高盛發表研究報告,指長線對內地線上課後補習(AST)滲透持正面看法,但相信在近期監管收緊及新生招募渠道(在地推廣、線下體驗館及校內解決方案)相對規模收縮下,料線上AST增長將溫和放緩,並對線上AST服務商短期收入增長勢頭看法更趨審慎。
報告稱,自去年6月初將新東方在線(01797.HK)評級降至「沽售」以來,公司股價累跌49%,同期恆指累升17%,該行所覆蓋內地教育股平均升4%。該行持續認為行業中蘊藏更吸引機遇,如新東方-S(09901.HK)、中教控股(00839.HK)、宇華教育(06169.HK)。考慮新東方在線近期股價跑輸,報告上調其投資評級由「沽售」升至「中性」,以現金流折現率計,目標價由22元降至18元。
高盛認為,新東方在線作為內地較小線上補習商,料續面對競爭挑戰,特別是行業龍頭開始滲透線下渠道招生,擴大收生基礎以進一步滲透至三、四線城市。高盛維持對其收入及經營溢利預測不變,惟下調其2022至2025財年經調整每股盈測平均2分人民幣,以反映利息收入減少,仍預期其2020至2023財年收入複合增長達54%,受惠K-12課後補習複合增長達118%帶動,並料其在2024財年非通用會計準則計經營溢利層面可達收支平衡。
高盛補充,內地線下補習持續恢復,包括北京,相較線上補習,線下補習潛在監管影響較高可見度,對線下補習復甦維持正面看法,行業首選新東方-S,並位列確信買入名單。
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