一文综合大行对中移动(00941.HK)最新评级、目标价及观点(表)
中移动(00941.HK)今早股价靠稳，昨日(25日)中午收市後公布去年纯利按年升1%至1,078.43亿元人民币，符合本网早前综合16间券商预测之中位数1,074.3亿元人民币。每股盈利5.27元人民币。派每股末期息1.76港元。
中移动去年营业额按年升3%至7,680.7亿元人民币，其中通信服务收入按年升3%至6,956.92亿元人民币，销售产品收入及其他按年升1%至723.78亿元人民币。EBITDA按年跌4%至为2,851亿元人民币。EBITDA率按年收窄2.6个百分点至为37.1%。中移动董事长杨杰指内地政策为红筹企业回A提供有利环境，公司正积极研究。
公司去年移动客户9.42亿户，其中5G套餐客户1.65亿户净增1.62亿户，移动ARPU为47.4元人民币，跌幅按年收窄4个百分点。公司期望移动客户规模保持稳定，5G网络客户达2亿，并力争移动ARPU企稳回升。中移动去年资本开支为1,806亿元人民币，而5G相关投资共计1,025亿元人民币。公司预计今年资本开支1,836亿元人民币，其中5G相关资本开支约1,100亿元人民币。公司预期2021年新建2.6GHz基站约12万，并拟与中国广电联合采购700MHz基站40万站以上，於2021年至2022年建成投入使用。
【业绩符合预期 ARPU跌幅收窄】
瑞银报告指，中移动去年纯利增长1%，大致符合早前指引。由於5G相关投资，去年维修成本大增17%，管理层预期今年有关成本增长大幅放缓，料按年仅升5%。中移动管理层亦指出，料流动ARPU今年靠稳或上升，并留意到行业有收入动力改善迹象，首两月收入增6%。瑞银维持予中移动「买入」评级，目标价由72元升至76元。该行亦上调中移动2021至2023年每股盈测2%至5%，以反映去年业绩略胜预期，及首两月收入增长势头胜预期。
汇丰环球研究指，中移动去年第四季EBITDA受网络成本上升打击，但管理层预计今年相关成本上涨将较去年放慢。该行亦认为中移动有潜在增加派息可能，受业务能见度改善，与及今年资本开支料按年升1.7%。在股东回报稳定及投资风险减低下，正观望企业业务增长及顾客部门复苏迹象，作为潜在的股价催化剂。该行把中移动目标价由70元上调至74元，维持「买入」评级。
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本网最新综合10间券商对其投资评级及目标价：
券商│投资评级│目标价(港元)
德银│买入│75元->85元
里昂│买入│80元
瑞信│跑赢大市│79.5元
中银国际│买入│78.6元
花旗│买入│76元
瑞银│买入│72元->76元
摩根大通│增持│73元
汇丰环球研究│买入│74元->70元
野村│买入│65元
高盛│中性│55.3元
券商│观点
德银│去年底成本上涨影响盈利，股价相对历史估值极为便宜
里昂│业务动力持续改善
瑞信│纯利逊预期，但派息仍有增长
中银国际│料移动业务ARPU今年可触底回升
花旗│公司去年盈利大致符预期
瑞银│业绩符预期，展望正面
摩根大通│固网业务抵销移动业务缓慢增长，资本开支预测低於市场预期
汇丰环球研究│网络成本为今年业绩关键
野村│收入及盈利胜预期，EBITDA率逊预期
高盛│业绩符预期，全年派息指引稳定
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