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《業績前瞻》券商料中行(03988.HK)去年少賺4% 關注淨息差及海外業務復蘇
阿思達克 03-24 12:42
中國銀行(03988.HK.HK)將於下周二(30日)公布2020年業績,由於要配合國家持續讓利實體經濟政策,進一步降低企業融資成本,本網綜合4間券商預測,中行2020年純利料介乎1,770.5億至1,914.68億元人民幣,較2019年1,874.05億人民幣,按年下跌2.2%至5.5%,中位數1,799億人民幣按年跌4%。

綜合2間券商(摩根大通及中金)預測,中行2020年營業收入料介乎5,687.7億至5,707.85億元人民幣,較2019年營業收入5,500.10億元人民幣,按年上升3.4%至3.8%。此外,綜合2間券商(摩根大通及中金)預測,中行2020年每股股息預測介乎0.18元至0.2元人民幣,較2019年每股股息0.191元人民幣,按年跌4.7%至5.8%。市場將料中行今年貸款增長會保持穩定,但關注海外地區疫情持續會影響其資產質素復蘇的步伐、及淨息差前景。

【讓利實體經濟 料去年純利跌】

中金料中行去年純利按年跌5.5%至1,770.5億人民幣,料營業收入按年升3.4%至5,687.7億人民幣,估計淨利息收入3,983.15億人民幣按年升6.4%、估淨手續費收入913.96億人民幣按年升2%,料淨息差收窄至1.7%,不良貸款比率略升至1.5%,核心資本充足率11.1%。中金上月發表指,重申看好今年銀行業績和股價表現,息差企穩、信用成本自高位回落,銀行業利潤增長速度可能創過去五年最高值。

瑞信指出,基於今年實質經濟長強勁及支援企業壓力較去年減少,預期中行盈利增長將於今年顯著恢復,撥備前溢利將有更快增長。該行預測中行去年扣除優先股股息純利為1,805億元人民幣,與去年大致持平。

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本網綜合4間券商預測,中行2020年純利料介乎1,770.5億至1,914.68億元人民幣,較2019年1,874.05億人民幣,按年下跌2.2%至5.5%,中位數1,799億人民幣按年跌4%。

券商│2020年純利預測(人民幣)│按年變幅

摩根大通│1,914.68億元│-2.2%

美銀證券│1,811.98億元│-3.3%

海通國際│1,786億元│-4.7%

中金│1,770.5億元│-5.5%

按中行2019年純利1,874.05億元人民幣計算。

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綜合2間券商預測,中行2020年營業收入料介乎5,687.7億至5,707.85億元人民幣,較2019年營業收入5,500.10億元人民幣,按年上升3.4%至3.8%。

券商│2020年營業收入預測(人民幣)│按年變幅

摩根大通│5,707.85億元│+3.8%

中金│5,687.7億元│+3.4%

按中行2019年營業收入5,500.10億元人民幣計算。

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綜合2間券商預測,中行2020年每股股息預測介乎0.18元至0.2元人民幣,較2019年每股股息0.191元人民幣,按年跌4.7%至5.8%。

券商│2020年每股股息預測(人民幣)│按年變幅

摩根大通│0.2元│-4.7%

中金│0.18元│-5.8%

按中行2019年每股股息0.191元人民幣計算。

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