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《业绩前瞻》券商料中行(03988.HK)去年少赚4% 关注净息差及海外业务复苏
阿思达克 03-24 12:42
中国银行(03988.HK.HK)将於下周二(30日)公布2020年业绩,由於要配合国家持续让利实体经济政策,进一步降低企业融资成本,本网综合4间券商预测,中行2020年纯利料介乎1,770.5亿至1,914.68亿元人民币,较2019年1,874.05亿人民币,按年下跌2.2%至5.5%,中位数1,799亿人民币按年跌4%。

综合2间券商(摩根大通及中金)预测,中行2020年营业收入料介乎5,687.7亿至5,707.85亿元人民币,较2019年营业收入5,500.10亿元人民币,按年上升3.4%至3.8%。此外,综合2间券商(摩根大通及中金)预测,中行2020年每股股息预测介乎0.18元至0.2元人民币,较2019年每股股息0.191元人民币,按年跌4.7%至5.8%。市场将料中行今年贷款增长会保持稳定,但关注海外地区疫情持续会影响其资产质素复苏的步伐、及净息差前景。

【让利实体经济 料去年纯利跌】

中金料中行去年纯利按年跌5.5%至1,770.5亿人民币,料营业收入按年升3.4%至5,687.7亿人民币,估计净利息收入3,983.15亿人民币按年升6.4%、估净手续费收入913.96亿人民币按年升2%,料净息差收窄至1.7%,不良贷款比率略升至1.5%,核心资本充足率11.1%。中金上月发表指,重申看好今年银行业绩和股价表现,息差企稳、信用成本自高位回落,银行业利润增长速度可能创过去五年最高值。

瑞信指出,基於今年实质经济长强劲及支援企业压力较去年减少,预期中行盈利增长将於今年显着恢复,拨备前溢利将有更快增长。该行预测中行去年扣除优先股股息纯利为1,805亿元人民币,与去年大致持平。

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本网综合4间券商预测,中行2020年纯利料介乎1,770.5亿至1,914.68亿元人民币,较2019年1,874.05亿人民币,按年下跌2.2%至5.5%,中位数1,799亿人民币按年跌4%。

券商│2020年纯利预测(人民币)│按年变幅

摩根大通│1,914.68亿元│-2.2%

美银证券│1,811.98亿元│-3.3%

海通国际│1,786亿元│-4.7%

中金│1,770.5亿元│-5.5%

按中行2019年纯利1,874.05亿元人民币计算。

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综合2间券商预测,中行2020年营业收入料介乎5,687.7亿至5,707.85亿元人民币,较2019年营业收入5,500.10亿元人民币,按年上升3.4%至3.8%。

券商│2020年营业收入预测(人民币)│按年变幅

摩根大通│5,707.85亿元│+3.8%

中金│5,687.7亿元│+3.4%

按中行2019年营业收入5,500.10亿元人民币计算。

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综合2间券商预测,中行2020年每股股息预测介乎0.18元至0.2元人民币,较2019年每股股息0.191元人民币,按年跌4.7%至5.8%。

券商│2020年每股股息预测(人民币)│按年变幅

摩根大通│0.2元│-4.7%

中金│0.18元│-5.8%

按中行2019年每股股息0.191元人民币计算。

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