《大行報告》大和升思摩爾國際(06969.HK)評級至「買入」 目標價下調至64元
大和發表的研究報告指,內地或潛在監管電子煙消息出台後,思摩爾國際(06969.HK)股價一如預期下跌,現時難估算實際帶來的影響,但相信最差的情況對公司2022年盈利影響約25%,雖然發生的可能性很低,但已反映在股價上,相信部分投資者將思摩爾與下游參與者、較受監管影響的霧芯科技(RLX.US)放在同一籃子內。該行認為長遠而言行業內地發展雖受阻,但電子煙的滲透率將繼續提升,估計公司將受惠品牌、研發能力及生產效率,將評級由「跑贏大市」升至「買入」,目標價則由90元降至64元,將公司2022年每股盈測降5.6%,以反映內地電子煙市場增長放慢。
該行認為市場兩大憂慮包括電子煙價值鏈將受監管,以及加稅將降低行業利潤,現時市場相信加稅不能避免,但估計將透過加價及成本管控等轉嫁,另一方面大部分投資者亦同意,日後會有更多新的發牌條件,意味或需牌照才能開設零售店,相信將影響RELX及YOOZ等品牌的增長速度。在最差的情景下,相信電子煙市場將現「洗牌」,但即使新品牌亦依賴思摩爾作生產,認為市場對消息的反應與美國初次宣布收緊行業監管一樣,而當時僅影響小型電子煙品牌,最終供應商仍是受益者,所以相信類似的情節將在中國重演。
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