《大行報告》摩通上調紫金(02899.HK)評級至「增持」 目標價升至12.9元
摩根大通發表研究報告,指銅價強勢帶來驚喜。考慮紫金礦業(02899.HK)2020至2022年間,銅及黃金生產年均複合增長料逾30%,而且銅已超越黃金,成為紫金去年純利最大貢獻來源,料未來數年銅的重要性仍持續增加,市場將紫金視為投資銅的替代品。摩通上調紫金今明兩年盈測分別16.2%及9.5%,以反映較高的銅/黃金產量,以及銅價上升,H股投資評級由「中性」升至「增持」,目標價由8.5元升至12.9元。
報告表示,紫金去年業績對辦,稅後純利按年升52%至65.1億元人民幣,大致符市場預期。公司指引明年銅生產料自目前水平升近倍,至介乎80萬至85萬噸。至2025年,銅生產料逾100萬噸。考慮銅生產強勁增長及該行對銅價樂觀看法,料未來兩年銅將較黃金在紫金純利貢獻上更形重要。
摩通料短期銅價持續強勢,受惠今年上半年家電及汽車熱銷帶挈銅需求增長強勁;新供應產能增長料集中今年下半年。宏觀而言,市場充裕流動性及美國財政刺激憧憬持續提振投資氣氛。最後,今年首季期貨交易所銅庫存跌至多年低位,反映短期市場供應緊張。
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