《业绩前瞻》券商料中石化(00386.HK)去年股东应占利润跌39% 估今年首季好转
中石化(00386.HK)(600028.SH)将於本周五(26日)公布去年业绩，因新冠疫情在全球大流行，令全球球经济衰退、国际油价一度「断崖式」下跌使全球油气行业陷入低迷，本网综合7间券商料中石化2020年纯利公司股东应占利润预测介乎301.28亿元至409.05亿元，较2019年同期的574.65亿元，按年下滑28.8%至47.6%，中位数349.17亿人民币，按年跌39.2%。
综合8间券商料中石化2020年营业收入介乎2.22万亿至2.83万亿元人民币，较上年同期的2.97万亿元人民币，2019年同期收入29,661.93亿人民币，按年下跌7.3%至25%，中位数24,421.1亿人民币，按年跌17.7%。
【去年受疫情拖累 料今年前景佳】
中金2月中曾发表报告，基於去年油价水平较低下，料中石化去年归属母公司净利润310.36亿人民币按年跌46.1%，其中包括去年第三季管道资产出售带来的一次性税後收益约306亿人民币(税前为368亿人民币)，料中石化2020年核心利润为正数。
中金估计中石化去年收入26,351.28亿人民币按年跌11.2%，估计公司2020年大望维持派息比率65%，而基於去年整体较低的油价水平，该行认为公司在去年底或面临减值测试的压力，主要可能分部在公司上游和炼化业务板块。
该行估计中石化今年首季盈利有望超预期。去年首季因疫情爆发叠加国际油价大幅下跌，公司经营遭受到了较大的负面影响，反观今年初至今，考虑到疫情的负面影响正在消退；化工品涨价延续良好趋势；叠加国际油价自去年底至今呈现出持续上涨的态势，或为公司炼油、销售业务板块带来较为可观的库存收益。
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本网综合7间券商料中石化2020年纯利公司股东应占利润预测介乎301.28亿元至409.05亿元，较2019年同期的574.65亿元，按年下滑28.8%至47.6%，中位数349.17亿人民币，按年跌39.2%。
券商│2020年公司股东应占利润预测(人民币)│按年变幅
里昂│409.05亿元│-28.8%
汇丰环球研究│391.47亿元│-31.9%
摩根士丹利│380亿元│-33.9%
星展│349.17亿元│-39.2%
瑞信│329.91亿元│-42.6%
中银国际│302.72亿元│-47.3%
法巴│301.28亿元│-47.6%
按中石化2019年公司股东应占利润574.65亿元计算
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综合8间券商料中石化2020年营业收入介乎2.22万亿至2.83万亿元人民币，较上年同期的2.97万亿元人民币，2019年同期收入29,661.93亿人民币，按年下跌7.3%至25%，中位数24,421.1亿人民币，按年跌17.7%。
券商│2020年营业收入预测(人民币)│按年变幅
星展│27,483.6亿元│-7.3%
摩根士丹利│26,577亿元│-10.4%
中金│26,351.28亿元│-11.2%
瑞信│24,660.97亿元│-16.9%
汇丰环球研究│24,181.16亿元│-18.5%
中银国际│24,134.35亿元│-18.6%
里昂│22,581.53亿元│-23.9%
法巴│22,249.30亿元│-25%
按中石化2019年营业收入29,661.93亿人民币计算
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