《業績前瞻》券商料中石化(00386.HK)去年股東應佔利潤跌39% 估今年首季好轉
中石化(00386.HK)(600028.SH)將於本周五(26日)公布去年業績，因新冠疫情在全球大流行，令全球球經濟衰退、國際油價一度「斷崖式」下跌使全球油氣行業陷入低迷，本網綜合7間券商料中石化2020年純利公司股東應佔利潤預測介乎301.28億元至409.05億元，較2019年同期的574.65億元，按年下滑28.8%至47.6%，中位數349.17億人民幣，按年跌39.2%。
綜合8間券商料中石化2020年營業收入介乎2.22萬億至2.83萬億元人民幣，較上年同期的2.97萬億元人民幣，2019年同期收入29,661.93億人民幣，按年下跌7.3%至25%，中位數24,421.1億人民幣，按年跌17.7%。
【去年受疫情拖累 料今年前景佳】
中金2月中曾發表報告，基於去年油價水平較低下，料中石化去年歸屬母公司淨利潤310.36億人民幣按年跌46.1%，其中包括去年第三季管道資產出售帶來的一次性稅後收益約306億人民幣(稅前為368億人民幣)，料中石化2020年核心利潤為正數。
中金估計中石化去年收入26,351.28億人民幣按年跌11.2%，估計公司2020年大望維持派息比率65%，而基於去年整體較低的油價水平，該行認為公司在去年底或面臨減值測試的壓力，主要可能分部在公司上游和煉化業務板塊。
該行估計中石化今年首季盈利有望超預期。去年首季因疫情爆發疊加國際油價大幅下跌，公司經營遭受到了較大的負面影響，反觀今年初至今，考慮到疫情的負面影響正在消退；化工品漲價延續良好趨勢；疊加國際油價自去年底至今呈現出持續上漲的態勢，或為公司煉油、銷售業務板塊帶來較為可觀的庫存收益。
-----------------------------------------
本網綜合7間券商料中石化2020年純利公司股東應佔利潤預測介乎301.28億元至409.05億元，較2019年同期的574.65億元，按年下滑28.8%至47.6%，中位數349.17億人民幣，按年跌39.2%。
券商│2020年公司股東應佔利潤預測(人民幣)│按年變幅
里昂│409.05億元│-28.8%
匯豐環球研究│391.47億元│-31.9%
摩根士丹利│380億元│-33.9%
星展│349.17億元│-39.2%
瑞信│329.91億元│-42.6%
中銀國際│302.72億元│-47.3%
法巴│301.28億元│-47.6%
按中石化2019年公司股東應佔利潤574.65億元計算
-----------------------------------------
綜合8間券商料中石化2020年營業收入介乎2.22萬億至2.83萬億元人民幣，較上年同期的2.97萬億元人民幣，2019年同期收入29,661.93億人民幣，按年下跌7.3%至25%，中位數24,421.1億人民幣，按年跌17.7%。
券商│2020年營業收入預測(人民幣)│按年變幅
星展│27,483.6億元│-7.3%
摩根士丹利│26,577億元│-10.4%
中金│26,351.28億元│-11.2%
瑞信│24,660.97億元│-16.9%
匯豐環球研究│24,181.16億元│-18.5%
中銀國際│24,134.35億元│-18.6%
里昂│22,581.53億元│-23.9%
法巴│22,249.30億元│-25%
按中石化2019年營業收入29,661.93億人民幣計算
(ta/w)
~
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
