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華僑銀行:本港失業率未來數月或維持高位
阿思達克 03-22 12:07
華僑銀行經濟師謝棟銘及華僑永亨銀行經濟師李若凡發表報告,指本港最新失業率刷新近十七年新高的7.2%。由於相對較慢的疫苗接種進度,該行擔憂本地疫情將反反覆覆。另外,政府沒有延長去年11月底結束的保就業計劃。因此,未來幾個月失業率可能維持在高位。從好的方面來看,疫苗推廣可能帶動外需復蘇。這加上電子消費券和其他紓困措施,可能幫助重振本地經濟。因此,該行依然認為失業率上半年可能於7%至8%區間內見頂,並於下半年逐漸回落。

金融市場方面,B站(09626.HK)緊隨百度(09888.HK)步伐於上周四在港啟動公開招股。同時,360數科證實正在籌備在港二次上市。由此可見,港股市場波動性上升,雖然影響了投資者對新股的熱情,但無阻各大企業考慮來港首次或二次上市。因此,儘管活躍的IPO市場可能無法為港匯和港元拆息帶來太多上升壓力,但應該有助於限制匯價和利率的跌幅,尤其是在美元堅挺的情況下。

其他方面,金管局總裁余偉文稱今年可以落地出台三項措施,以推動粵港澳大灣區跨境金融聯通。這料有助於鞏固香港作為離岸人民幣中心的低位,便利大灣區內人力資源、資金及貿易的自由流動,以及增加中港之間在金融科技方面的協作。

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