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华侨银行:本港失业率未来数月或维持高位
阿思达克 03-22 12:07
华侨银行经济师谢栋铭及华侨永亨银行经济师李若凡发表报告,指本港最新失业率刷新近十七年新高的7.2%。由於相对较慢的疫苗接种进度,该行担忧本地疫情将反反覆覆。另外,政府没有延长去年11月底结束的保就业计划。因此,未来几个月失业率可能维持在高位。从好的方面来看,疫苗推广可能带动外需复苏。这加上电子消费券和其他纾困措施,可能帮助重振本地经济。因此,该行依然认为失业率上半年可能於7%至8%区间内见顶,并於下半年逐渐回落。

金融市场方面,B站(09626.HK)紧随百度(09888.HK)步伐於上周四在港启动公开招股。同时,360数科证实正在筹备在港二次上市。由此可见,港股市场波动性上升,虽然影响了投资者对新股的热情,但无阻各大企业考虑来港首次或二次上市。因此,尽管活跃的IPO市场可能无法为港汇和港元拆息带来太多上升压力,但应该有助於限制汇价和利率的跌幅,尤其是在美元坚挺的情况下。

其他方面,金管局总裁余伟文称今年可以落地出台三项措施,以推动粤港澳大湾区跨境金融联通。这料有助於巩固香港作为离岸人民币中心的低位,便利大湾区内人力资源、资金及贸易的自由流动,以及增加中港之间在金融科技方面的协作。

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