一文综合大行於长和(00001.HK)公布业绩後最新评级、目标价及观点
长和(00001.HK)今日股价造淡，瑞银指长和仍未公布股份回购计划，但相信其公布今年中期业绩时有机会公布，摩通指长和去年业绩符预期，估计其公布今年第二季时有机会宣布股份回购计划。该公司昨日(19日)收市後公布去年全年业绩，按IFRS 16後基准收益总额按年跌8.2%至4,038.46亿元符预期，纯利按年跌26.8%至291.43亿元，与摩通及美银早前预测的288.02亿及294.91亿元相若。
长和去年EBITDA跌10%至1,223.48亿元，每股盈利7.56元，派每股末期息1.7元，上年同期派2.3元，总计全年股息为每股2.314元。按IFRS 16前基准，长和去年纯利按年跌27%至290亿元，与本网早前综合4间券商预测中位数293.3亿元相若。
按业务划分，去年港口及相关服务部门收益328.65亿元，EBITDA为109.14亿元，分别按年跌7%及19%，零售业务去年收益按年跌6%，基建部门方面相关EBITDA按年增2%。公司续称，集团於上半年受到最大影响之业务，尤其是零售及港口部门，虽受惠下半年经济复苏，惟不足以弥补上半年呈报盈利之巨额跌幅。长和主席李泽钜表示，集团现金流非常充足，正在留意新收购机会。
【摩通料第二季进行股份回购】
摩根大通表示，长和业绩符合该行预测。该行预期长和就出售欧洲电讯铁塔收取第二笔款项後，将於今年第二季进行股份回购，料规模相当於流通股份6%。假设回购是用作抵销出售有关业务後租赁成本增加的影响，按目前股价算，预计未来12个月回购股份规模将相等於6%股权，即148亿元。该行相信股份回购仍是长和的主要股价催化剂，给予该股「增持」评级及82.5元目标价。野村预期，长和股份回购将於今年内进行，为期最少两年。扣除回购股份下的出售所得将用作减债及收购储备。该行指长和股价仍较2021年预测资产净值折让44%，给予该股「买入」评级，目标价74.5元，相等资产净值折让34%。
瑞银指出指长和仍未公布股份回购计划，但相信其公布今年中期业绩时有机会公布。该行指长和已完成6项出售协议的其中4项，在业绩公布时未披露股份回购详情。该行预期下一个时间窗为今年第二季，即在意大利相关交易完成後，并早前英国相关协议今年底完成前，有关出售将於2021年带来出售收益430亿元。若以公司的31%派息率计算，相等於每股3.5元或5.5厘股息，即作为特别股息。该行给予长和「买入」评级，目标价67元。
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本网最新综合5间券商对其投资评级及目标价。
券商│投资评级│目标价(港元)
高盛│买入(确信买入名单)│87元
花旗│买入│73.5元->84元
摩根大通│增持│82.5元
野村│买入│74.5元
瑞银│买入│67元
券商│观点
高盛│关注第二季潜在股份回购，因料更多电讯铁塔出售交易完成
花旗│去年下半年见复苏迹象
摩根大通│预期公司第二季或会宣布将进行股份回购
野村│业绩确认盈利复苏
瑞银│未有股份回购消息，指去年业绩符预期，估今年资本回报增
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