《业绩前瞻》券商料长和(00001.HK)去年按IFRS 16前基准纯利跌逾27% 估派息削25%(更新)
长和(00001.HK)将於明天(18日)公布去年度业绩，由於新冠疫情在全球大流行，影响遍及大部分行业，旗下零售及港口业务受冲击，旗下能源业务亦受油价大幅波动影响，本网综合4间券商预测，按IFRS(际财务报告准则)16(「租赁」)前基准，料长和去年纯利料介乎261.05亿至381.99亿元，较2019年IFRS 16前基准纯利398.88亿元，按年减少4.2%至34.5%，中位数293.3亿元，按年下跌26.5%。
摩根大通及美银证券料长和2020年IFRS 16後基准纯利288.02亿元及294.91亿元，较2019年同期398.3亿元按年跌26%至27.7%。综合3间券商预测，料长和2020年收益总额预测3,685.25亿至4,040.19亿元，较2019年4,398.56亿元，按年下跌8.2%至16.2%。
每综合5间券商预测，料长和2020年每股全年派息介乎2.1至3.17元，较2019年3.17元，按年跌4.1%至持平，中位数为2.39元，按年跌24.6%。
【受疫情拖累 料派息削两成】
摩根士丹利预期长和去年IFRS 16前基准纯利按年跌25.1%至298.58亿元，收益总额按年减少8.1%至4,040.19亿元，料其中零售业务收入录1,650.12亿元按年跌2%、估计能源业务收入按年跌30%至333.25亿元、估计CKH Group Telecom业务收入按年倒退9%至850.18亿元，其中3G欧洲业务收入按年跌9%，并估计港口业务收入按年下滑4%至340亿元。该行料长和去年核心EBITDA按年跌17%至863.47亿元、料公司旗下能源业务EBITDA录亏损28.83亿元，料港口、零售、基建业务EBITDA按年各跌7%、16%、8%。
美银证券预计，长和去年按IFRS 16後基准纯利按年跌26%至294.91亿元，受新冠疫情拖累零售、港口及能源业务盈利，但按年跌幅料由上半年的29%收窄至下半年的20%，因受惠於中国零售业务改善。该行指长和旗下欧洲电讯业务仍具挑战性。
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本网综合4间券商预测，按IFRS(际财务报告准则)16(「租赁」)前基准，料长和去年纯利料介乎261.05亿至381.99亿元，较2019年IFRS 16前基准纯利398.88亿元，按年减少4.2%至34.5%，中位数293.3亿元，按年下跌26.5%。
券商│IFRS 16前基准2020年的纯利预测│按年变幅
高盛│381.99亿元│-4.2%
摩根士丹利│298.58亿元│-25.1%
摩根大通│288.02亿元│-27.8%
瑞银│261.05亿元│-34.5%
按长和2019年IFRS 16前基准纯利398.88亿元计算
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综合3间券商预测，料长和2020年收益总额预测3,685.25亿至4,040.19亿元，较2019年4,398.56亿元，按年下跌8.2%至16.2%。
券商│2020年收益总额预测│按年变幅
摩根士丹利│4,040.19亿元│-8.2%
摩根大通│3,788.13亿元│-13.9%
里昂│3,685.25亿元│-16.2%
按长和2019年收益总额4,398.56亿元计算
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综合5间券商预测，料长和2020年每股全年派息介乎2.1至3.17元，较2019年3.17元，按年跌4.1%至持平，中位数为2.39元，按年跌24.6%。
券商│2020年每股股息预测│按年变幅
摩根大通│3.17元│持平
高盛│3.04元│-4.1%
野村│2.39元│-24.6%
摩根士丹利│2.25元│-29%
瑞银│2.1元│-33.8%
按长和2019年每股股息3.17元计算
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