瑞银汪涛上调内地今年经济增长预测至9%
瑞银亚洲经济研究主管暨首席中国经济学家汪涛表示,由於今年1至2月内地经济活动高於预期,预计第一季度经济增长(GDP)按季可能小幅增长,进而推动首季GDP按年增速反弹至近20%。
他提及,美国已经通过了1.9万亿的财政刺激计划,这有望推动美国增长更为强劲、引领全球复苏。因此,他将全年出口增速预测从10%上调到16%。此外,他预计实际国内消费增长10%、而出口很可能保持强劲增长,这应能够支撑企业资本开支在低基数下反弹,并部分抵销房地产和基建投资走弱的拖累。
整体而言,考虑到前两个月的经济活动较强劲,加上料出口或强劲增长,将2021年全年GDP增速预测由8.2%上调到9%。
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