《大行報告》海通國際首予農夫山泉(09633.HK)「優於大市」評級 目標價60.37元
海通國際發表研究報告,首予農夫山泉(09633.HK)「優於大市」評級,目標價60.37元。報告稱,農夫山泉是內地包裝飲用水及飲料行業龍頭,其成長性和盈利能力均領先行業;其2017至2019年公司主營業務和淨利潤複合增速分別為17.19%/21%,各年淨利潤率分別19.4%/17.6%/20.6%,倘與國際對比,其毛利率和淨利潤率與可口可樂(KO.US)接近。此外公司財務指標優秀,其中股本回報率(ROE)穩定保持在25%以上。
報告形容內地包裝飲用水行業「長坡厚雪」,茶、果汁、功能及咖啡飲料市場大有可為。內地軟飲料市場2019年達到9,914億元人民幣(下同)的市場規模,預計並將在2024年達到13,230億元的市場規模(對應年增長率將維持在5.9%)。內地軟飲料市場整體集中度相對較低,2019年前十名參與者合計僅佔42.5%的市場份額,前四大參與者合計佔27.7%的市場份額。
海通國際表示,包裝飲用水是剛需/必選消費的生意,市場空間巨大。2019年內地包裝飲用水市場規模達到2,017億元,是內地軟飲料市場最大細分領域,預計至2024年期間將繼續保持雙位數以上複合增長。內地包裝飲用水市場首五大企業市佔合計達到56.17%,其中農夫山泉市佔率達到20.92%,是第二名市佔率的1.5倍以上。該行預計行業龍頭優勢將愈發明顯,看好強者恆強。
報告表示,農夫山泉渠道覆蓋廣闊及深度下沉+強大營銷能力,建構了品牌護城河;其產品鋪貨能夠覆蓋到全國,並在第一時間能夠接觸到消費者,另一方面不斷用優質營銷內容和持續的營銷升級來搭建品牌與消費者之間的溝通橋梁,提升品牌曝光度,增強消費者對品牌的認可與粘性。
海通國際預計農夫山泉2020至2022年各年公司營業總收入分別為236.06億、281.38億及326.56億元,按年分別跌2%、升19%及升16%;純利料分別51.76億、61.32億、72.08億元,按年分別升5%、升18%及升18%,對應H股每股盈測分別0.46元、0.55元及0.64元。
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