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《大行报告》海通国际首予农夫山泉(09633.HK)「优於大市」评级 目标价60.37元
阿思达克 03-11 12:40
海通国际发表研究报告,首予农夫山泉(09633.HK)「优於大市」评级,目标价60.37元。报告称,农夫山泉是内地包装饮用水及饮料行业龙头,其成长性和盈利能力均领先行业;其2017至2019年公司主营业务和净利润复合增速分别为17.19%/21%,各年净利润率分别19.4%/17.6%/20.6%,倘与国际对比,其毛利率和净利润率与可口可乐(KO.US)接近。此外公司财务指标优秀,其中股本回报率(ROE)稳定保持在25%以上。

报告形容内地包装饮用水行业「长坡厚雪」,茶、果汁、功能及咖啡饮料市场大有可为。内地软饮料市场2019年达到9,914亿元人民币(下同)的市场规模,预计并将在2024年达到13,230亿元的市场规模(对应年增长率将维持在5.9%)。内地软饮料市场整体集中度相对较低,2019年前十名参与者合计仅占42.5%的市场份额,前四大参与者合计占27.7%的市场份额。

海通国际表示,包装饮用水是刚需/必选消费的生意,市场空间巨大。2019年内地包装饮用水市场规模达到2,017亿元,是内地软饮料市场最大细分领域,预计至2024年期间将继续保持双位数以上复合增长。内地包装饮用水市场首五大企业市占合计达到56.17%,其中农夫山泉市占率达到20.92%,是第二名市占率的1.5倍以上。该行预计行业龙头优势将愈发明显,看好强者恒强。

报告表示,农夫山泉渠道覆盖广阔及深度下沉+强大营销能力,建构了品牌护城河;其产品铺货能够覆盖到全国,并在第一时间能够接触到消费者,另一方面不断用优质营销内容和持续的营销升级来搭建品牌与消费者之间的沟通桥梁,提升品牌曝光度,增强消费者对品牌的认可与粘性。

海通国际预计农夫山泉2020至2022年各年公司营业总收入分别为236.06亿、281.38亿及326.56亿元,按年分别跌2%、升19%及升16%;纯利料分别51.76亿、61.32亿、72.08亿元,按年分别升5%、升18%及升18%,对应H股每股盈测分别0.46元、0.55元及0.64元。

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