一文综合券商於中电信(00728.HK)公布业绩及计划「回A」後最新目标价及观点
中电信(00728.HK)今早股价先抽升後升幅收窄，股价一度弹高9.8%，最新报2.72元升2.6%。该公司昨日(9日)收市後公布去年业绩，经营收入按年升4.7%至3,935.61亿元人民币，纯利按年升1.6%至208.5亿元人民币，每股盈利0.26元人民币，派每股末期息0.125港元。
中电信去年服务收入按年升4.5%至3,738亿元人民币，EBITDA按年升1.4%至1,189亿元人民币。全年资本支出按年升9.3%至848亿元人民币。截至去年底移动用户共3.51亿，净增1,545万户，用户市场份额提升至22%，5G套餐用户共8,650万，渗透率24.6%，5G特色应用用户规模合计超过1.5亿户，移动用户ARPU降幅持续收窄。按年跌3.7%至44.1元人民币，5G ARPU则为65.6元人民币。
【5G开支将微升 拟回归A股上市】
中电信预期今年资本开支预算870亿元人民币，当中5G资本开支预算由去年的微升5亿元人民币至397亿元人民币，目标在用5G基站增至70万站。中电信今年移动用户目标净增1,200万户，5G用户净增8,000万户，宽带净增500万户。此外，公司返回中国A股上市，计划发行逾120亿股A股，以募集资金及引入战略投资者，以捉紧发展机会。麦格理估计中电信计划回A股上市，将令股份摊薄13%。
摩根士丹利上调对中电信目标价，由3元上调至3.5元，此按现金流折现率作估值，维持「增持」评级。该行指，中电信预期工业数码化收入及移动服务收入增长，将推动今年收入录双位数增长。但经营成本上升将较去年加快，基於工业互联网业务扩大。因此大摩预期公司EBITDA率将收窄，但EBITDA将有2%增长。该行亦指，中电信回到A股上市将分薄每股盈利，但料管理层将试图维持稳定派息，显示对股东的承诺。
【受惠良性竞争 云业务具优势】
野村上调对中电信投资评级，由「中性」上调至「买入」，目标价由2.9元上调至3.6元，此按现金流折现率作估值，相当於预测2022年市盈率9.3倍。该行指中电信计划返回A股上市，将可推动该股估值，因中电信H股处於低位。该行亦指，中电信基本面应持续改善，受惠於市场良性竞争，於行业领先的5G渗透率，及於互联网数据中心及云市场的竞争优势。该行上调对中电信今年及明年盈利预测2%至4%，以反映可能出现的收入加快增长。
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本网最新综合8间券商对其投资评级及目标价：
券商│投资评级│目标价(港元)
摩根大通│增持│4.3元
瑞银│买入│3.95元->4.15元
汇丰环球研究│买入│3.6元->3.7元
野村│中性->买入│2.9元->3.6元
摩根士丹利│增持│3元->3.5元
瑞信│跑赢大市│3.47元
高盛│买入│3.1元
麦格理│跑赢大市│3元
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券商│观点
摩根大通│A股上市属正面因素，去年第四季业绩强，资本开支有效控制
瑞银│A股上市推动长期结构性改革
汇丰环球研究│清晰转向至投资物联网增长
野村│ A股上市计划有利估值上调
摩根士丹利│资本开支指引正面，A股上市为惊喜
瑞信│A股上市属正面因素
高盛│全年业绩符预期
麦格理│指5G业务帮助不大，料回A股上市将摊薄股份13%
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