一文綜合券商於中電信(00728.HK)公布業績及計劃「回A」後最新目標價及觀點
中電信(00728.HK)今早股價先抽升後升幅收窄，股價一度彈高9.8%，最新報2.72元升2.6%。該公司昨日(9日)收市後公布去年業績，經營收入按年升4.7%至3,935.61億元人民幣，純利按年升1.6%至208.5億元人民幣，每股盈利0.26元人民幣，派每股末期息0.125港元。
中電信去年服務收入按年升4.5%至3,738億元人民幣，EBITDA按年升1.4%至1,189億元人民幣。全年資本支出按年升9.3%至848億元人民幣。截至去年底移動用戶共3.51億，淨增1,545萬戶，用戶市場份額提升至22%，5G套餐用戶共8,650萬，滲透率24.6%，5G特色應用用戶規模合計超過1.5億戶，移動用戶ARPU降幅持續收窄。按年跌3.7%至44.1元人民幣，5G ARPU則為65.6元人民幣。
【5G開支將微升 擬回歸A股上市】
中電信預期今年資本開支預算870億元人民幣，當中5G資本開支預算由去年的微升5億元人民幣至397億元人民幣，目標在用5G基站增至70萬站。中電信今年移動用戶目標淨增1,200萬戶，5G用戶淨增8,000萬戶，寬帶淨增500萬戶。此外，公司返回中國A股上市，計劃發行逾120億股A股，以募集資金及引入戰略投資者，以捉緊發展機會。麥格理估計中電信計劃回A股上市，將令股份攤薄13%。
摩根士丹利上調對中電信目標價，由3元上調至3.5元，此按現金流折現率作估值，維持「增持」評級。該行指，中電信預期工業數碼化收入及移動服務收入增長，將推動今年收入錄雙位數增長。但經營成本上升將較去年加快，基於工業互聯網業務擴大。因此大摩預期公司EBITDA率將收窄，但EBITDA將有2%增長。該行亦指，中電信回到A股上市將分薄每股盈利，但料管理層將試圖維持穩定派息，顯示對股東的承諾。
【受惠良性競爭 雲業務具優勢】
野村上調對中電信投資評級，由「中性」上調至「買入」，目標價由2.9元上調至3.6元﹐此按現金流折現率作估值，相當於預測2022年市盈率9.3倍。該行指中電信計劃返回A股上市，將可推動該股估值，因中電信H股處於低位。該行亦指，中電信基本面應持續改善，受惠於市場良性競爭，於行業領先的5G滲透率，及於互聯網數據中心及雲市場的競爭優勢。該行上調對中電信今年及明年盈利預測2%至4%，以反映可能出現的收入加快增長。
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本網最新綜合8間券商對其投資評級及目標價：
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
摩根大通│增持│4.3元
瑞銀│買入│3.95元->4.15元
匯豐環球研究│買入│3.6元->3.7元
野村│中性->買入│2.9元->3.6元
摩根士丹利│增持│3元->3.5元
瑞信│跑贏大市│3.47元
高盛│買入│3.1元
麥格理│跑贏大市│3元
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券商│觀點
摩根大通│A股上市屬正面因素，去年第四季業績強，資本開支有效控制
瑞銀│A股上市推動長期結構性改革
匯豐環球研究│清晰轉向至投資物聯網增長
野村│ A股上市計劃有利估值上調
摩根士丹利│資本開支指引正面，A股上市為驚喜
瑞信│A股上市屬正面因素
高盛│全年業績符預期
麥格理│指5G業務幫助不大，料回A股上市將攤薄股份13%
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