《业绩前瞻》券商料长和(00001.HK)去年按IFRS 16前基准纯利最多跌逾三成 估派息削23%
长和(00001.HK)将於下周四(18日)公布去年度业绩，由於新冠疫情在全球大流行，影响遍及大部分行业，旗下零售及港口业务受冲击，旗下能源业务亦受油价大幅波动影响，本网综合3间券商预测，按IFRS(国际财务报告准则)16(「租赁」)前基准，料长和去年纯利料介乎261.05亿至381.99亿元，较2019年IFRS 16前基准纯利398.88亿元，按年减少4.2%至34.5%。
摩根士丹利及中信里昂分别预测长和去年收益总额为4,040.19亿及3,685.85亿元，较2019年同期4,398.56亿元，分别按年下滑8.1%及16.2%。每股派息方面，综合4间券商预测，料长和2020每股全年派息介乎2.1至3.04元，较2019年3.17元，按年跌4.1%至33.8%，中位数为2.44元，按年跌23%。
【受疫情拖累 料派息削两成】
摩根士丹利预期长和去年IFRS 16前基准纯利按年跌25.1%至298.58亿元，收益总额按年减少8.1%至4,040.19亿元，料其中零售业务收入录1,650.12亿元按年跌2%、估计能源业务收入按年跌30%至333.25亿元、估计CKH Group Telecom业务收入按年倒退9%至850.18亿元，其中3G欧洲业务收入按年跌9%，并估计港口业务收入按年下滑4%至340亿元。该行料长和去年核心EBITDA按年跌17%至863.47亿元、料公司旗下能源业务EBITDA录亏损28.83亿元，料港口、零售、基建业务EBITDA按年各跌7%、16%、8%。
大摩指出，赫斯基能源与Cenovus合并後，将使长和除息税前溢利(EBIT)波动性减低，又指长和剔除赫斯基能源後，2010至2019年间EBIT录14%复式增长，但该宗合并意味公司去年下半年减值470亿元。此外，公司去年11月出售电讯铁塔资产予Cellnex，预计长和因此录得150亿元一次性净收益，并料有关出售对电讯业务去年EBITDA影响轻微，但2021及2022年EBITDA将因此分别减少9.5亿及30亿元。
美银证券预计，长和去年按IFRS 16後基准纯利按年跌26%至294.91亿元，受新冠疫情拖累零售、港口及能源业务盈利，但按年跌幅料由上半年的29%收窄至下半年的20%，因受惠於中国零售业务改善。该行指长和旗下欧洲电讯业务仍具挑战性，去年盈利将包括电讯铁塔部分出售的收益，但由赫斯基能源合并案造成的减值抵销。该行亦预期今年盈利将反弹一成，受惠於赫斯基能源与Cenovus合并後免除能源业务损失，中国零售业务竞争优势及汇兑利好。
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本网综合3间券商预测，按IFRS(际财务报告准则)16(「租赁」)前基准，料长和去年纯利料介乎261.05亿至381.99亿元，较2019年IFRS 16前基准纯利398.88亿元，按年减少4.2%至34.5%。
券商│IFRS 16前基准2020年的纯利预测│按年变幅
高盛│381.99亿元│-4.2%
摩根士丹利│298.58亿元│-25.1%
瑞银│261.05亿元│-34.5%
按长和2019年IFRS 16前基准纯利398.88亿元计算
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综合4间券商预测，料长和2020年每股全年派息介乎2.1至3.04元，较2019年3.17元，按年跌4.1%至33.8%，中位数为2.44元，按年跌23%。
券商│2020年每股股息预测│按年变幅
高盛│3.04元│-4.1%
野村│2.63元│-17%
摩根士丹利│2.25元│-29%
瑞银│2.1元│-33.8%
按长和2019年每股股息3.17元计算
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