美债收益率相对GDP增速为1966年来最低，预示债市之痛仍将继续
即使10年期美国收益率最近突破1.6%，但国债收益率与美国经济增速之比仍是1966年以来最低。这表明利率恐怕会进一步上行。
在美国拜登总统1.9万亿美元的刺激计划下，老百姓即将获得振兴经济的支票，分析师也在上调经济和通胀预测。彭博调查显示，对美国名意大利内生产总值(GDP)增速的平均预期达到7.6%，为32年来最高水平。尽管10年期美债收益率自去年11月以来上涨一倍至1.6%，还是很难跟得上已提升后的经济增速预估，两者之间的差距可能是自林登·约翰逊担任总统以来的最大。
由于刺激措施的前景以及新冠疫苗的推出，激发了人们对经济复苏和通胀上升的乐观情绪，全球债券市场受到重创。美国美联储官员们表示，收益率上升反映出增长前景更强，但淡化了推出政策回应的必要性，交易员更有胆子推升长期借贷成本。
“我看空债市，”对冲基金顾问Macro Intelligence 2 Partners的总裁Julian Brigden表示。“太多刺激资金进入系统。这将使通胀在经济增长同时非常快地加速上升。”
尽管债券收益率与经济增速之间并没有稳定关联，但差异如此大的情况并不多见。2010-2019年，名义GDP增速平均比10年期国债收益率高不到2个百分点。
“过去，债券收益率应该等同于名义GDP增速，”Brigden称。“现在情况已经大不相同。但程度有多大？可以实际收益率为-1%而名义GDP增速为10%吗？”
DoubleLine Capital LP的创始人Jeffrey Gundlach先前提及，美国国债收益率应与美国名义GDP和德国国债收益率的平均值相当。以此推算，如果共识的预期得以实现，可比的债券收益率将高于3％。
Gundlach提醒外界，他的指标仅供参考，而非精确的预测，但他以绑在驿马车上的狗这个比喻，来描述收益率与GDP之间的关系：这条狗是不能离开驿马车太远的。Doubleline的发言人拒绝评论Gundlach针对市场发表的最新想法。
经济学家对名义GDP的预估中值是基于实际GDP增幅预测均值为5.5%，PCE价格指数预测均值为上升2.1%。高盛是上调经济和债券收益率预测的公司之一，该公司上周将10年期美国国债收益率预测从1.50%上调至1.90%。
包括花旗集团和法国兴业银行等其他业者预期会升到2％。
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