瑞银料恒指年底见36,000 「十四五」全面创新、成长性周期股蕴投资机遇
瑞银中国策略主管刘鸣镝称,该行对三个重要股指都有正面观点,料今年底沪深300见6,100,恒生指数料见36,000,MSCI料见126。估值对历史均值的标准差是偏高的,但是该行看了全球的市场以後大家都高,只有一些非常小众市场,包括欧洲市场在两倍的均值以下基本都偏高。如果该行看它的市盈增长率,现在的点位和该行估算的增长,估值也不能算特别过分的。这个就是该行在疫情以後新的流动性环境下面估值的判断。
她表示,十年期美债收益上涨属市场主动预期,一是因为新冠疫情有疫苗出来以後在全球发达国家也得到了抑制,而且数字是很明确的。二是因为并没有引起债权市场的不稳定,投资级别的债权和风险的债权息差都没有拉开。她指出,该行投资人在海外,像美国这样的市场也在换仓位,从防御型或者美股的核心资产调到一些价值股,更多的是调到周期股。所以它是在调整仓位的过程中。
刘氏称,最近内地宏观调控政策的态度,基金的赎回,包括「两会」对於2021年GDP目标是6%以上。总体来讲给大家更审慎和短期的心态。但是从全年来看该行还是相当乐观的,因为个股股指的成长是硬道理,只要有业绩估值都不会太差。
她指出,该行2021年有三大投资主题:第一是内地居民提高股票敞口;第二,周期性复苏去年已经开始了;第三,全面创新,进入「十四五」规划。刘氏进一步解释,「十四五」期间,「两会」能够很明确的了解到全面的创新,就是各行各业的创新,包括新能源汽车、可再生能源、5G、物联网、高端制造、医疗医药等。她表示,相信创新可以提高价格、提高毛利率、提高净利率的、提高报表品质,并指创新属今後几年非常关注的投资主题。
刘氏称,看好今年股指表现,是因为业绩增长,因为家庭资产的需求,最乐观的就是在周期里边有成长性的周期,这是新周期,还不是传统以库存定义的周期。她建议大家多关注有成长性的周期股。她最後称,该行去年12月曾发表了类比仓的配置,当时仓位元最多的就是在周期里,消费是标配的,银行是低配的,电信这些价值非常明显的行业是高配的。
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