《大行報告》瑞銀:內地利率環境料有利內銀股淨息差
瑞銀發表研究報告,指國務院總理李克強公布今年度政府工作報告,包括今年GDP增長目標為6%以上,相信反映中國將於今年退出部份寬鬆政策,並針對更多有關防範風險的問題。李克強同時重申,政府會維持政策的穩定性,不會急速轉向。今年財政預算赤字降50點子至3.2%,且沒有特別國債的發行計劃。而新的地方政府特別債券限額減少1,000億元人民幣至3.65萬億元人民幣。財政方面,中國M2和社會融資總量亦預期與實際GDP增長速度相若,在CPI目標為3%以下,意味著M2/社會融資總量今年增長約10-11%。
該行指,在利率方面,李克強指中國將改善對存款利率的監管,推動有效貸款利率進一步降低,以持續引導金融系統支持實體經濟。不過,講法與銀保監主席郭樹清的說法有出入,郭樹清之前指,今年貸款定價和利率有增加的可能性。該行認為在通賬預期和政策利率提升的背景下,市場利率亦有可能提升,相信今年利率環境將有利銀行的淨息差走勢,特別是具有較多存款的銀行。
該行又指,政府工作報告亦有對微企和中小企的支持政策,包括允許大型銀行繼續以30%以上的增長速度向微企和中小企提供貸款,相信多項支持性政策會持續。而若以溫和步伐退出支持性政策,預期資產質素大致穩定,不良貸款率不會大跌。另外,金融科技的政策風險料會持續。
該行表示,目前最影響內銀股的四大風險,分別為資產質素的惡化;資本、流動性、賬外資產相關的監管風險;資金結構以及資產負債表的流動性;中期利率自由化。
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