港股異動 | 原油價格飆升,拉動石化板塊上漲
uSMART3月5日消息,今日港股早盤,石化相關板塊逆市上漲,“三桶油”集體高開。截至11:20,中石油(0857.HK)盤中漲超5.5%,中海油(0883.HK)盤中漲超2.75%,中石化(0386.HK)盤中漲超1.84%。
3月4日,歐佩克+聯合部長級監督委員會(JMMC)召開會議,決定OPEC+在4月保持產量基本不變,預計OPEC+4月減產規模爲800-810萬桶/天。昨夜美股Brent(美國布倫特油價基金)、WTI(原油期貨)盤中一度漲至67.65、64.81美元/桶,漲幅分別爲5.59%、5.76%,再次突破前高。多家研究機構發佈研究報告表示進入油價上行週期。
高盛:上調布倫特油價預測
高盛週四表示,將第二季度和第三季度布倫特油價預測上調至每桶75美元和80美元,該行還將第四季度和2022年預測分別上調了5美元至75美元/桶,將2022年美國頁巖油產量預測上調30萬桶/日。
中信研究:此輪油價上行週期有望再持續1年以上
覆盤油價歷史,1998年以來的5輪油價上行週期持續時間均在2-3年左右。基本面角度來看,全球需求正在持續復甦,預計2021年底至2022年上半年有望恢復至疫情前水平,長期來看,2014年以來低油價導致的低資本開支導致全球原油供應端潛力不足。目前除亞太地區以外,美國、歐洲、中東原油庫存均已回落至5年均值或以下,OPEC+減產仍在推動原油庫存向其預期的“2015年以前低水平”回落。結合油價歷史覆盤、供需格局和產油國訴求,我們認爲此輪油價上行週期或有望再持續1年以上。
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