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郭思治: 大市已回调中期反弹之33%
阿思达克 03-08 09:47
香港股票分析师协会副主席郭思治称,自踏进3月份後,整个大市不但持续处反覆不明之中,且更进一步创中期调整市之新低,先看3月份,直到执笔一刻止计,恒指暂是由3日之高位29,912点跌至5日之低位28,513点,即3月之波幅暂已达1,399点,惟由於一个月之高低位是不该同时出现於三个交易日之内,故在本月余下之交易日,技术上该有更大之波幅点出现,即更高或更低之指数将於稍後才出现。

再看上周五(5日)之市势,恒指早市先大幅低开569点至28,667点,其後再进一步跌至28,513点,即其时大市已曾急跌723点,且更一度跌穿50天线(28,876点),论形态当偏淡,但由於大市在短期内已累积不少跌幅,故买盘开始伺低吸纳,而大市亦作明显反弹,至午後更曾倒升161点至29,397点,末段再见反覆,恒指最後报收29,098点,较上日跌138点,全日总成交金额为2,404亿元。

大市自2月18日高位31,183点开始之中期调整,至3月5日低位28,513点止计,累积跌幅为2,670点,相对前中期升浪之升幅为8,059点计(去年9月25日低位23,124点升至今年2月18日高位31,183点),即大市已回调升幅之33%,论幅度已不算少,亦符合早前笔者之推算,当时笔者指出,大市可能会进一步回调至28,496点。

(笔者为证监会持牌人)~

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