《大行报告》花旗:利率改善港银股中期展望 升中银(02388.HK)评级至「买入」
花旗发表研究报告,随着美国十年期国债孳息2月升约40点子,今年以来本港银行股股价已累升约14%,已接近疫情前水平。据该行利率分析师估算,市场正押注美国十年期国债孳息将升至介乎1.7厘至2厘水平;在「再通胀」投资主题下,估计港银股增长主题目前仅在半途之中。
该行称,受惠於经济复苏憧憬及2023至2024年潜在加息,市场对本港银行股看法趋向建设性。该行选股次序建基两大因素,一是股息收益率,该行认为尚未被市场确认;二是盈利能力及每股盈利增长。
花旗上调中银香港(02388.HK)评级,由「中性」升至「买入」,将目标价由24.9元升至32.5元,认为上行空间最大,属行业首选;随着恒生银行(00011.HK)恢复渐进每股分派政策,升其投资评级,由「沽售」升至「中性」,升目标价由125元升至150元。
该行将大新金融(00440.HK)及大新银行集团(02356.HK)评级,均由「沽售」一举升至「买入」,随着信贷成本重大改善,料盈利增长重拾活力。
花旗解释,本港银行股展示向股东回馈资本的意愿,去年每股分派胜市场预期。东亚银行(00023.HK)、中银香港及汇控(00005.HK)按市值计剩余资本最多,中期而言,中银在分派资本裕余上定位最佳。汇控及渣打集团(02888.HK)重启派息,汇控并修订长期派息政策,由2022年起占列帐基准盈利介乎40%至55%。报告称,汇控短期股息收益率因盈利受压所限。该行料汇控2023年随着股本回报率恢复至8.4%,收益率料改善至8%。
该行称,本港银行股盈利料近见底,港银净利差正谷底反弹,并指引今年净利差料接近去年底水平。贷款增长温和,料今年下半年将会加快。花旗称,港银信贷亏损收窄,拨备按半年减少,季度不良贷款生成趋势大致稳定。港银并指引今年拨备料进一步减少,周期性信贷成本料趋正常化。
花旗补充,倘加息预期升温,行业有进一步上行空间;跨境理财通亦有望成为未来另一重大催化剂。
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