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《大行報告》花旗:利率改善港銀股中期展望 升中銀(02388.HK)評級至「買入」
阿思達克 03-05 13:40
花旗發表研究報告,隨著美國十年期國債孳息2月升約40點子,今年以來本港銀行股股價已累升約14%,已接近疫情前水平。據該行利率分析師估算,市場正押注美國十年期國債孳息將升至介乎1.7厘至2厘水平;在「再通脹」投資主題下,估計港銀股增長主題目前僅在半途之中。

該行稱,受惠於經濟復甦憧憬及2023至2024年潛在加息,市場對本港銀行股看法趨向建設性。該行選股次序建基兩大因素,一是股息收益率,該行認為尚未被市場確認;二是盈利能力及每股盈利增長。

花旗上調中銀香港(02388.HK)評級,由「中性」升至「買入」,將目標價由24.9元升至32.5元,認為上行空間最大,屬行業首選;隨著恆生銀行(00011.HK)恢復漸進每股分派政策,升其投資評級,由「沽售」升至「中性」,升目標價由125元升至150元。

該行將大新金融(00440.HK)及大新銀行集團(02356.HK)評級,均由「沽售」一舉升至「買入」,隨著信貸成本重大改善,料盈利增長重拾活力。

花旗解釋,本港銀行股展示向股東回饋資本的意願,去年每股分派勝市場預期。東亞銀行(00023.HK)、中銀香港及匯控(00005.HK)按市值計剩餘資本最多,中期而言,中銀在分派資本裕餘上定位最佳。匯控及渣打集團(02888.HK)重啟派息,匯控並修訂長期派息政策,由2022年起佔列帳基準盈利介乎40%至55%。報告稱,匯控短期股息收益率因盈利受壓所限。該行料匯控2023年隨著股本回報率恢復至8.4%,收益率料改善至8%。

該行稱,本港銀行股盈利料近見底,港銀淨利差正谷底反彈,並指引今年淨利差料接近去年底水平。貸款增長溫和,料今年下半年將會加快。花旗稱,港銀信貸虧損收窄,撥備按半年減少,季度不良貸款生成趨勢大致穩定。港銀並指引今年撥備料進一步減少,周期性信貸成本料趨正常化。

花旗補充,倘加息預期升溫,行業有進一步上行空間;跨境理財通亦有望成為未來另一重大催化劑。

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